Short Heinz?

$ACDC doing 600m EBITDA at bottom of gas cycle with FCF of over a dollar per share. EV/EBITDA sub 4x at trough. Leverage to improved gas drilling is massive. EBITDA in good market likely 2x current.

$ACDC insider buying crossing tape

$X. Have been out since takeover announced. Time to buy here. Cheap as standalone. If they buy, short term home run.

If the jobs number is as bad as today’s ADP tomorrow, any reason they don’t do 75?

Ok let’s break this down. Payroll got revised down almost 90 K over 2 months. 3m average went down from 170 K to 117 K in a month. That’s below breakeven. Private payroll 3m average went down from 146 K to 96 K over the month. Full-time payrolls down by almost 440 K in

Things have been much worse for a while than reported. August freight down 5% per $XPO and $ODFL. We at point where negative feedback loop won’t be halted easily. Instead of debating 25 or 50 we should be talking about 75.

Impulse is deflationary here. Any inflation reported last few months is a true-up for underreporting we got during the inflationary surge.

What is the appropriate fed fund rate in an economy with 1% inflation and recessionary employment stats? As point of reference it was zero last time.

We are in a recession. The macroeconomic data might not reflect it yet, but the downturn has arrived. Everyone knows it. The lagging indicators just need time to catch up. I talk to a lot of CEOs. They all use the same word when I ask how their business is doing: “Slow.”

We have deflation and FF rate above 5%. The Fed isn’t behind the curve. They aren’t on the graph.

In its latest survey, the NFIB revealed that a net 37% of firms reported lower earnings over the past three months, the worst reading since the Great Recession. Unlike most of the other indicators that investors follow, this is a leading indicator for the stock market.

We only work overtime now.

I have to say that optics of 50 bp cut with 6 weeks to go to elections and while market is at ATH are just bad. At the same time Fed is 250 bp above neutral and should probably be cutting by 75 bp. They did it to themselves.

High cost of housing isn’t from rates. It’s housing supply and immigrant demand.

The idea that 75 or 100 till year end is what will make inflation explode is absurd.

Politicized take. Don’t need to be falling of a cliff to know that 300-400 bps of real rates need to be adjusted when things are soft.