Appears to be consensus forming in polling averages, betting markets and forecasts… Trump 287 (AZ, GA, NV, NC, PA) Harris 251 (MI, WI)

Either the national polls are overestimating Trump vote or the state polls are overestimating Harris vote (or little of both)

Average EV outcomes (Trump-Harris) Polling Aggregators: 287-251 Partisan Models: 274-264 Media Models: 272-266 Academic Models: 277-261 Prediction Markets: 287-251

Dems: The Economy Reps: The Economy

2024 Polling vs Historical Exit Polling (1960-2020)

Are you confident in these exit polls?

Kerry prediction market gains after 2004 exit poll release (%) WI: +32 IA: +26 FL: +25 OH: +23 PA: +19 NH: +19 NM: +14 MI: +12 NV: +10 (Tradesports, 3pm to 541pm)

White/non-white share of the electorate from EARLY exit release (%) 2016: 70/30 2020: 65/35 2024: 71/29 Final 2016: 71/29 2020: 67/33 2024: ??

9:40pm in 2016: 54% Trump 9:40pm in 2024: 68% Trump

According to NYT estimate Iowa: R+13 New York: D+13

2024 was an “Indictment of political information complex” Well said

Democrat ad spending by issue (%) Abortion 32 Healthcare 14 Immigration 13

It appears as if most of Trump’s gains with Latino voters has come from married Latino men Married Latino Men 2020: D+26 2024: R+21 All other Latino voters 2020: D+21 2024: D+21

What remains of the Blue Dog Democrats

In 1930, Republicans won a 2-seat majority in House. It was gone by the time the House was convened into session.