Oil prices are up sharply despite OPEC talking about increasing production yet again to punish Kazakhstan for overproduction. This is a very bullish bet on the economy which Goldman Sachs now estimates is growing a 3.3%.

Circle runs the second largest stable coins USDC which is 100% backed by treasury bills Their entire business is collecting interest from the government. And their revenue is almost 2 billion dollars per year The tech IPO market averages 55% gains in the first yearIPOs are back.

Gold is 25% above its 200-day moving average so historically highly overvalued but strong momento and don't forget it is more volatile than the stock market capable of 70% crashes & 40-year bear markets 😉 CTA is 5.5% gold Zeus legacy Family Charity hedge fund is about 2.3% Gold.

Travel was hit hard by the trade war but we might be seeing signs of a recovery. Which would confirm the economic recovery narrative that the commodity market is strongly signaling with rising commodity prices.

Bank of America even more bullish on jobs at 150K. Friday is the jobs report. Wednesday will get the ADP private payroll report.

Median growth is expected to be strong in the second half of the year and big tech growth is expected to be 17%. If true that provides limited downside risk to the stock market where valuations come down but fundamentals hold up.

Adjusted for cash debt dividend yield and expected growth The market entered the month at 20% historically over valued similar to February 19th the start of the bear market. Keep in mind we are unlikely to face a liberation day like shock for the rest of the year 😉

Thank you Mike zaccardi for bringing us Goldman's daily updated GDP forecast! Goldman 3.3% Atlanta Fed 3.4% adjusted for trade effects New York Fed 2.4% St Louis Fed 2.7% Dallas Fed 1.9% (daily and weekly data)

This is similar to the Bloomberg and fact set consensus for the jobs report on Friday.

Stocks always climb a wall of worry on average stocks bottom 5 months before the economy and nine months before earnings do. That's why no one believes a new bull market. It always seems like a bear market rally. Until you hit new record highs and get confirmation.

Google must absolutely worry about perplexity I have replaced my browser with perplexity and I only use Google search to find specific websites. Perplexity is the new Google. My brother-in-law works in finance and both my sisters are nurses We all use perplexity not Google.

Retail investors were buying five times as much as selling in April according to vanguard. Rich investors were buying in April. Hedge funds were the only ones selling. We have a new smart money on Wall Street 😉 hedge funds were selling because the rules made them.

1 year luck is 13 x as powerful as fundamentals and over 30 years fundamentals are 33 x as powerful as luck "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity." "You're not right because people agree with you. You're right because your facts and reasoning are right." Buffe

I can guarantee you that Amazon trading at 12 times operating cash flow versus historical 25X and growing Free cash flow at 30% for the next 5 years per the fact that consensus has a lot more upside in the next year than 20%😉 2x price = fair value + 30% growth = 470% returns.

Notice that Goldman Sachs growth estimates in 2027 jump from 1.6% to 2.1%. Goldman expects AI to start showing up in the economic data in 2027 with an annual economic boost ranging from 0.3% to 2.9% for the next decade. The base case is 1.5%. 2.9% to 6.8% GDP growth range for

The Dallas weekly economic index shows 1.75% growth while Goldman Sachs thinks the economy is growing at 3.6%. I would love for that to be true but the preponderance of the daily charts data shows growth is slowing not accelerating.

New York Fed estimates 2.3% growth this quarter 2.4% growth next quarter Dallas fed weekly economic index 1.75% down from 1.9% in the last 2 weeks. Atlanta Fed trade adjusted 2.6% St Louis Fed 2.7%. Goldman Sachs 3.6%.

If the 3-month rolling average of unemployment rises to 0.5% or higher above the cycle low we are in recession. No recession in 2024. "All models are wrong some are useful" George EP box

The annualized wage growth rate was 4.9%. ADP reports 4.5% and 7% for those switching jobs. Year over year 3.9%.

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