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Immediate takeaway: The topline numbers look fine in this jobs report but the details show that the economy hit multiple adverse shocks & impulses this spring. I am more concerned about the outlook now The fact that topline looks fine is more liable to breed policy complacency

even if the S&P500 is ~roughly flat YTD (+2%), it's just undeniable that so many drivers of #GDP growth are slow. Lower population growth is going to be a drag we can't forget - easy with all the #tariff noise

a great read from Business Insider on my favorite long, $APP. Regardless of what happens with the S&P 500 rebalance - #AppLovin INEVITABLY will make it, and retail STILL has not fully discovered this story. A lot of organic growth is still ahead despite rich valuation

In my latest #substack, I explore what it means when one of TV's biggest BULLS, abruptly heads for the exits. In doing my research, I had not realized just how many #media assets Byron Allen had publicly bid for recently... $TGNA, $PARA, $DIS ABC , $SSP, the Denver Broncos

I don't see why you can't just own both $NFLX and $GOOGL for #YouTube. They can both win, and there's plenty of share still left to steal from linear media $WBD, $DIS, $PARA - this doesn't have to be a competition 🤑(h/t Rose Celine Investments 🌹 for this very thorough thread! )

this was such a great quote I had to highlight it " $LULU great example of how terminal value on apparel is discounted regardless of NT strength. " h/t SuspendedCap

passing on a link to another #AppLovin interview, this time with Jefferies at one of their private investor conferences. I will give it a listen later but wanted to share for those who also do #weekend reading. Hope we get some good S&P500 news later 🤑$APP

an interesting point that often gets discussed is whether the #movie theatrical window 🎥will change to be shorter/longer and what it means for #streaming. I don't know - but I know $DIS would have the most power to shift this given Disney's outsized share (%) of movies today🍿

hmmm, anyone think that $TTD is interesting here for a long? I don't short - trying to understand the issues. Even if $AMZN takes share, I expect the Trade Desk to still be a big player in a market that's still growing. But valuation keeps me on the sidelines....any similar?

I understand the selloff in $APP after not getting added to the S&P500, however, remember that being inside an index changes nothing about the fundamental value of #AppLovin. I will keep tweeting about their operations, which all evidence suggests are still growing nicely!

Now that $WBD is officially splitting, wanted to re-post my Q1 write-up. Pre-spinoff, I was bearish w/ decline in linear Network's EBITDA outpacing Streaming's growth, but now all that matters is how fast $WBD can split in 2...Subscribe if you want my recap of the IR deck!

I'm bookmarking this to listen to this episode later. I agree that the slow down in the labor-force growth is something that could be a drag on #GDP growth to monitor for 2025/2026...I'm not a macro guy, but I use this to temper my expectations for the S&P500 🤷‍♂️

this is a great point h/t Compound248 💰 - "how does David Zaslav get paid?" is something we will have to look at closely as more details about the $WBD spinoff (when we get the Form 10, etc.) - Incentives matter!

also - per Compound248 💰 - I think it makes sense that the $WBD CFO 📺is going to be running the cable nets because that's where the leverage /debt is going to be - less room for error. Managing declining EBITDA w/ leverage is no easy task! 😅

This #HarryPotter 🪄🧙‍♂️TV series I think is going to be the MOST important piece of content for $WBD with the spinoff. They badly need a multi-year HIT to help drive HBO Max subscriptions for the next decade. Even more important than #Superman or DC content

Look - I think with 2 $WBD stocks there will be an opportunity to make some money trading once we see valuation of the 2 tracking stocks. But make no mistake - this #spinoff is more than just undoing the Discovery deal. It says ALL the M&A by Warner Bros was destroying value 😅

This is a good summary of $APP valuation potential (but I don't endorse 30x EBITDA 😅). I see a clear path to $500 for #AppLovin, but it may take the rest of 2025 as 2026-2027 #'s will move up later in the year, I think. H/t SkyGrove Research - give him a follow

this is a 🗝️ distinction - debt (or the lack thereof) changes the M&A options for a #spinoff entity entirely. It probably is a good sign as to management expectations as to what will be an easier asset to sell ( $WBD, $CMCSA)

it's telling how #NintendoSwitch2 and so many other media companies want to leverage #YouTube as a distribution channel for their content - this is great for $GOOGL , $GOOG. There is no entertainment or gaming company that wants to leave YouTube out!