I remind everyone, because I've not heard it mentioned anywhere by anyone, that the market is up today because of #index #options expirations. Tomorrow are #stock options expirations. The arbitrage trade between them is the same that Jane Street pursued in India (in wklys).

As the Market Structure EDGE mob knows, new options for August expiration traded today. Stocks started strong and finished weak on less demand for leverage than anticipated. Tomorrow is #CounterpartyTuesday when the books on these and the ones expiring last week are squared.

Round of applause for The Wall Street Journal Heard writer Spencer Jakab for today's great piece: Why are stock up? Nobody knows. wsj.com/finance/stocks…

Weave Tour de France 2025 Live Stream into weekly blog: Check. The market has been like Mont Ventoux - a big climb. There's also a big descent off Ventoux. modernir.com/does-anybody-k…

As we await the open and later today Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell's comments, ponder this. Multiples aren't what you should watch for market signals. Watch the gaps. modernir.com/human-nature/

Wrote this today for the Interactive Brokers #quant blog. interactivebrokers.com/campus/ibkr-qu…

I thought that this was a sobering and insightful observation by Dougie Kass:

My last post was a joke. Jocularity. This is serious, you great economic minds like Mark Zandi Nick Timiraos Steve Liesman: Jeff Gundlach (I have funds at DoubleLine via managed accounts) notes oil has not rallied on a weak dollar. Are #oil, #copper, etc., incipient #deflation?

Still think active management beats the markets? Larry Swedroe out with another strong piece demolishing the idea that active managers can outperform indexes over time. He notes: 1) 97% of active funds underperformed on a risk-adjusted basis over 20 yrs; 2) "the winner's game

I don't watch #valuation per se because it's not how the #stockmaket works when most of the money flows to baskets underpinning #ETFs. But. 129 stocks are now 75% of market cap (15 are 40%). And $PLTR trades at 100X revenue. I'm sure it'll all work out.

Here's Demand/Supply in the Mag 7+, and Comms Svcs (they're next to each other on my Market Structure EDGE dashboard). Nothing wrong, but there's a change Aug 1 in fund cycle. Slow convergence. Without a shift, that will bring a slow bleed.

Here's our view on the Law of Large Numbers as it applies to #jobs and #stocks. modernir.com/large-numbers/

I'll be yammering about #marketstructure with Joel Elconin Dennis Dick, CFA today in a few minutes. Come heckle! youtube.com/live/ZJ4DBj3o6…

What's better, #investors and #issuers, #alpha or #beta? modernir.com/tomorrows-beta/

I shared this view with the Market Structure EDGE mob today. A snippet of my dashboard showing Demand/Supply divergence abounding into Aug #optionsexpirations (save crypto -- both up, Energy with flat Demand). But. Every single Supply trend is up. That will come around.

Everybody seeing $NEGG, up 1900% in 3 mos? Since May 8, it's averaged 20% intraday volatility, 65% of its volume comes from Fast Traders -- signaling retail, inflated by market-making. Passives are up from 8% to about 10% of volume too, but they're 27% in $SPX.

Demand and Supply in $SPY Jul 2017 to now (full Market Structure EDGE data set). Demand troughs to 1.0 in $SPY have always had another leg or more. Until now. Or it's coming yet. Supply 6/25 hit 73% and was only ever higher once, 12/15/21. But who knows? Just #marketstructure.