Do ‘tough’ mainstream party positions on immigration affect public political trust? My new @GovandOpp OA article, based on European Social Survey data shows how this can be detrimental to overall levels of public political trust. Especially immigration-welcomers’ trust levels suffer.

We are delighted to announce that the call for papers for #EPOP2024 is now open! This will take place at the University of Manchester from 11-13 September. Deadline for applications is 21st May. To submit, please follow this link: shorturl.at/abkCT

My postmortem on the UK 2019 general election forecasts with John Kenny and Rosalind Shorrocks : Polls did well, and uniform change from polls was a good guide to seats - better than betting markets and most other methods. electionsetc.com/2024/05/29/how…

Substack version of my postmortem on the UK 2019 General Election forecasts (with John Kenny and Rosalind Shorrocks, originally on ElectionsEtc.com) open.substack.com/pub/electionse…

First Combined Forecast for UK 2024 General Election, with John Kenny, Paul Furey and Polina Ryzhuk: Average of forecasts suggest Labour have an 86% chance of winning a majority, and are estimated to win with a lead of 20-points and majority of 188. electionsetc.com/2024/05/30/fir…

Second Combined Forecast for UK 2024 General Election, with John Kenny, Paul Furey and Polina Ryzhuk: Averaging forecasts suggests Labour have an 87% chance of winning a majority, winning with a lead of 21-points and a majority of 197. electionsetc.com/2024/06/06/sec…

'Fuzzy Frontiers? Testing the Fluidity of National, Partisan and #Brexit Identities in the Aftermath of the 2016 Referendum' by John Kenny, @DrLARichards & Anthony Heath. In Political Studies: ow.ly/LCVo50Gpl4q #PolStudiesUKGE 4/27 Political Studies Association Sage Politics #freeaccess

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 192, and a 21-point lead over the Conservatives on votes. See details of the Third Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with John Kenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at: electionsetc.com/2024/06/12/thi…

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 200 with a 20-point lead over the Conservatives on votes. See details of the Fourth Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with John Kenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at: electionsetc.com/2024/06/19/fou…

The blog post includes a table listing seat forecasts for all six of the latest MRP models: electionsetc.com/2024/06/19/fou…

Averaging forecasts suggests Labour will win a majority of 200 with a 20-point lead on votes (same as last week). See details of the Fifth Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election, with John Kenny, Paul Furey, and Polina Ryzhuk at: electionsetc.com/2024/06/26/fif…

📊 Get the latest UK election opinion polls! Prof Steve Fisher and alum Dr John Kenny are amongst those providing seat projections for the @Guardian 📰 Read more here ⬇️ #UKElections theguardian.com/politics/ng-in…

In advance of tomorrow's UK general election, Michael Lewis-Beck and I examine what a political economy-based forecasting model suggests for the fate of the Conservative Party. electionsetc.com/2024/07/03/ele…

Our Final Combined Forecast for the UK 2024 General Election is now out. For those at #EPSA2024 , do come to the Methodological Innovations panel at 9am on Friday for a very timely post-mortem of how the forecasts perform.

Our article at Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change is now out. In it, we present the results of our systematic review of the literature on politicians and climate change. See below for further details. doi.org/10.1002/wcc.908

John Kenny studies public support for withdrawing from international climate cooperation and finds that such support has been lower in liberal democracies, which are less dependent on fossil fuels for energy production. doi.org/10.1080/138769…

📢 Publication Alert! Wondering about how to measure climate policy content in text-as-data? Our new OPEN ACCESS article might provide (some) answers: tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10… CAST ClimateUEA Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research

🍊Fresh out! 🗒️In their note, Lucas Geese, Chantal Sullivan-Thomsett @chantal-st.bsky.social, John Kenny, Andy Jordan & Irene Lorenzoni explore conceptual complexities inherent to the nature of #climatechange and the impact this has on text-as-data 👉 bit.ly/3M48jZ3 #OA #TADA #comparativepolitics #policy

New article from John Kenny , Lucas Geese , Andrew Jordan and Irene Lorenzoni reviews the usage of climate change questions in public opinion surveys & provides an overview of the types of concepts that can be elicited from these. John Kenny Lucas Geese doi.org/10.1080/096440…