The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 92% likelihood that the Fed will not increase the target interest rate at the September 20 meeting. Even though recent inflation numbers are not moving in the right (meaning lower) direction it seems that the Fed will adopt and overly cautious

The ongoing decline in labor force participation among men (driven in large part by a decline in the prime working age cohort) has been offset by increases in participation rate by women. Not coincidentally most of the job gains in the last year have been in

Why all the hyperventilating about a Fed rate cut, based on today’s inflation results? Last I read the Fed’s target was 2% annual inflation. We seem pretty distant from that target today. Today’s inflation headlines: The consumer price index was up 0.2% in July and 2.9% on a

Autism Capital 🧩 It is extremely difficult to donate money at scale if you care about the reality of goodness, rather than the appearance of it

Look, if you REALLY believed Trump won the debate, you wouldn't be complaining about leaked questions, biased moderators, and hidden earring earpieces.

𝐈𝐭 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐡𝐞𝐥𝐩 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐲 𝐢𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐮𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤.  𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞’𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐲. Consumer spending drives the US economy. The hope is that if the Fed cuts rates then consumers will save on their credit card bills and car loans, and

𝐃𝐨 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐮𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐧 𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐞𝐚𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐬𝐞 𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐧 𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬? 𝐏𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐲 𝐧𝐨𝐭. 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞’𝐬 𝐰𝐡𝐲. Much is being written about

Is it possible the Fed doesn’t matter?  Or that the Fed can really NOT do good, but CAN do harm?  Yes, it is possible.   Let’s start by agreeing that today’s capital markets are huge, global, and reasonably efficient.  We can also agree that finance theory is built on the belief

The bottom line is, in the US today, the Fed doesn’t matter nearly as much as it used to. The most recent jobs report was surprisingly strong – headline numbers showed 254,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%.  What does the market seem to make of this?

What’s driving GDP growth?   Consumer spending, for the past 70 years, has been the primary engine of US GDP growth, accounting for 60-70% of GDP.   But many reports suggest consumers are tapped out – savings rates are the lowest in decades; credit card balances are at all time

Where is the Fed taking us?   The Fed has a dual mandate – to maintain full (maximum) employment, and to keep prices stable (meaning low inflation, which the Fed now defines as 2% on average over an unspecified timeframe).  These mandates are in tension with each other –

This week’s inflation report – higher than expectations (CPI), and higher than last month (Core).  The early response from FOMC members seems to be a shrug of the shoulders – which is a problem.   US inflation came in higher than anticipated in September, slowing to 2.4% from

Federal Reserve officials are - at best - showing an open mind. Bostic (Atlanta Fed) and Daly (San Francisco Fed) have recently said: Bostic has projected a single 25-basis-point interest-rate cut for the remainder of the year, but he said he is "keeping [his] options open."

The Fed made a mistake cutting rates 50 basis points in October.  Expectations are the Fed  lower interest rates next week by at least 25 basis points.  That would be another blunder by the Fed.   Here’s why.   Last week’s inflation report showed Personal Consumption Expenditures

Is the labor market so weak that an additional cut in interest rates is required?  No.  At least, not if the Fed is interested in BOTH parts of its “dual mandate”.   The most recent JOLTS report showed labor market statistics consistent with policies intended to slow the economy

The 1929 collapse began once the month rolled over on Sep 4th. I bet Gary Gensler is going to make the $SMCI announcement on Tuesday December 3rd. Dow $DJI is currently above the 125 yr resistance trend. The last time this happened was August 1929. Is it "different this time?"🙃

Fed officials concerned about tariffs, inflation impact Federal Reserve officials expressed concern about the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs on inflation, according to minutes from the January meeting. The Federal Open Market Committee decided to hold interest rates