Markus (@valuebymarkus) 's Twitter Profile
Markus

@valuebymarkus

Passionate about investing, markets, and technology. I invest in quality and growth - at a reasonable price. Background in banking & operations.

ID: 1359908609795231751

calendar_today11-02-2021 16:54:22

408 Tweet

926 Followers

966 Following

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$Harvia Q4 - first reflections, not great, not terrible Q4 Sales: Northern Europe +11.6% Continental Europe +5.7% North America +2.8% APAC & EMEA +0.9% Very solid execution in Europe, the turnaround looks structural. That said, US growth, which is key to the investment case,

$Harvia Q4 - first reflections, not great, not terrible

Q4 Sales:
Northern Europe +11.6%
Continental Europe +5.7%
North America +2.8%
APAC & EMEA +0.9%

Very solid execution in Europe, the turnaround looks structural.

That said, US growth, which is key to the investment case,
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$MEKKO Q4 – the same struggles continue Sales: +1% EBIT: 16.1% (17.1%) The structural issues continue to persist. Asia-Pacific grew +10%, but with Finland still representing 54% of total sales, the -1% YoY decline in Finland had a major impact on overall numbers. Licensing

$MEKKO Q4 – the same struggles continue

Sales: +1%
EBIT: 16.1% (17.1%)

The structural issues continue to persist. Asia-Pacific grew +10%, but with Finland still representing 54% of total sales, the -1% YoY decline in Finland had a major impact on overall numbers.

Licensing
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I have nothing against BTC and could even see myself owning it at some point. But when I read the future assumptions like: “After 10 years at a 25% Bitcoin CAGR…” I’d rather lean short than long. Eventually leveraging the balance sheet at a +10% cost of capital, relying on

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$Boreo Q4 - Sequential Improvement Continues Sales: +18% YoY (organic +12%) EBIT: +33% EBIT margin: 6% (5.3%) ROCE: 8.8% (7.9%) ND/EBITDA: 2.1x Five consecutive quarters of sales growth. Margins trending in the right direction. Working capital discipline was solid: – 2.9 M€

$Boreo Q4 - Sequential Improvement Continues

Sales: +18% YoY (organic +12%)
EBIT: +33%
EBIT margin: 6% (5.3%)
ROCE: 8.8% (7.9%)
ND/EBITDA: 2.1x

Five consecutive quarters of sales growth. Margins trending in the right direction. 

Working capital discipline was solid:
– 2.9 M€
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Interesting move by $HOOD to offer private market exposure to retail investors. Well-known growth names like Oura becoming accessible. It broadens access to companies that previously were largely limited to institutional and professional investors. The key variable, however, is

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After -65% in ~5 years, is the market finally over-discounting $INDERES? A high-quality student research report made me revisit the case. The IPO hype is long gone. Nordic small caps have been in a deep freeze. Meanwhile, Inderes has built: - ~60% recurring revenue -

After -65% in ~5 years, is the market finally over-discounting $INDERES?

A high-quality student research report made me revisit the case.

The IPO hype is long gone. Nordic small caps have been in a deep freeze. Meanwhile, Inderes has built:

- ~60% recurring revenue
-
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$LMND Q4 is out: - IFP +31% YoY - 9 consecutive quarters of acceleration - Revenue +53%, with operating leverage from lower reinsurance dependence - Gross loss ratio 52% (vs. 63% YoY, 62% QoQ) Growth is accelerating while loss ratios are improving. The execution is absolutely

$LMND Q4 is out:

- IFP +31% YoY - 9 consecutive quarters of acceleration
- Revenue +53%, with operating leverage from lower reinsurance dependence
- Gross loss ratio 52% (vs. 63% YoY, 62% QoQ)

Growth is accelerating while loss ratios are improving.

The execution is absolutely
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Does $HARVIA deserves approx double the EV / Sales than $POOL? Both benefit from: - Outdoor living - Wellness at home - Backyard upgrades - Huge US market But the economics of the end product are fundamentally different. A barrel sauna ~ 5k$ A standard in-ground pool ~ 50k$+

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“Expectations are now high. There’s little room for disappointment. A soft quarter or broader market stress could easily mean a -40% drawdown.” We’re now ~40% lower at 59$. In hindsight, trimming into peak optimism wouldn’t have been irrational. After revisiting the Q4 report

“Expectations are now high. There’s little room for disappointment. A soft quarter or broader market stress could easily mean a -40% drawdown.”

We’re now ~40% lower at 59$. In hindsight, trimming into peak optimism wouldn’t have been irrational.

After revisiting the Q4 report
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$LMND shareholder data from the Nordics: retail is doubling down. Since the September update, the number of owners has risen +50%. Usually, I avoid businesses with a fast-growing retail base but given strong Q3-Q4 biz execution (including the recent $TSLA FSD insurance

$LMND shareholder data from the Nordics: retail is doubling down.

Since the September update, the number of owners has risen +50%. Usually, I avoid businesses with a fast-growing retail base but given strong Q3-Q4 biz execution (including the recent $TSLA FSD insurance
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$QTCOM reports Q4 on Thursday. Expectations are close to zero: The market has punished almost the entire SaaS & software this year while AI-native players like Anthropic ship new agents and capabilities on a weekly basis. Narrative shift: From “sticky dev tools” to “AI will

$QTCOM reports Q4 on Thursday. Expectations are close to zero:

The market has punished almost the entire SaaS & software this year while AI-native players like Anthropic ship new agents and capabilities on a weekly basis.

Narrative shift:
From “sticky dev tools” to “AI will
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“AI will kill the software." That narrative may be too simplistic, while I still believe in a major disruption. After Anthropic’s Enterprise Agents briefing, Deutsche Bank argues model providers are more likely to become an orchestration layer on top of existing systems rather

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Defense stocks are pricing a world that stays dangerous With Middle East tensions rising, markets are increasingly pricing defense spending as structurally higher, not only in Europe, but globally. That thesis is hard to dismiss given the shifting world order and evolving power

Defense stocks are pricing a world that stays dangerous

With Middle East tensions rising, markets are increasingly pricing defense spending as structurally higher, not only in Europe, but globally.

That thesis is hard to dismiss given the shifting world order and evolving power
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Finland is rebuilding its welfare engine with $CRM Kela (Social Insurance Institution) has selected to implement a major reform of its benefit administration, built on Salesforce. This isn’t cosmetic IT spend, ~600M€ over a span of 10 years. It’s core public-sector

Finland is rebuilding its welfare engine with $CRM

Kela (Social Insurance Institution) has selected to implement a major reform of its benefit administration, built on Salesforce.

This isn’t cosmetic IT spend, ~600M€ over a span of 10 years. It’s core public-sector
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Valtteri Bottas promoting $Harvia On paper, the exposure is meaningful: ~5.5M Instagram followers and ~2M on X, combined with a Finnish athlete who has natural credibility around sauna culture. Unlike the typical free exposure we see from global superstars like Ronaldo, Neymar

Valtteri Bottas promoting $Harvia 

On paper, the exposure is meaningful: ~5.5M Instagram followers and ~2M on X, combined with a Finnish athlete who has natural credibility around sauna culture.

Unlike the typical free exposure we see from global superstars like Ronaldo, Neymar
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$IREN now targets: - 150,000 GPUs - AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue > 3.7 B$ by end of 2026 That’s an ambitious scale-up. The question isn’t whether demand exists. It’s whether execution converts power into cash flows fast enough to justify the capital intensity. Three

$IREN now targets:

- 150,000 GPUs
- AI Cloud annualized run-rate revenue > 3.7 B$ by end of 2026

That’s an ambitious scale-up. The question isn’t whether demand exists. It’s whether execution converts power into cash flows fast enough to justify the capital intensity.

Three
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Most CEOs sell stock. Greg Abel just did the opposite. Berkshire’s CEO disclosed buying +15M$ of $BRK.A effectively his entire annual pay and said he plans to keep using all of it to buy Berkshire shares for as long as he holds the role. Alignment rarely gets clearer than this.

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The Nordic small-cap rebound thesis hasn’t aged well so far. FN25 is down almost ~20% YTD, and the operating environment across the Nordics hasn’t meaningfully improved during Q1. Add persistent SaaS valuation fears (with small caps heavily exposed to tech) and rising

The Nordic small-cap rebound thesis hasn’t aged well so far.

FN25 is down almost ~20% YTD, and the operating environment across the Nordics hasn’t meaningfully improved during Q1.

Add persistent SaaS valuation fears (with small caps heavily exposed to tech) and rising
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Bill Ackman is taking a step toward something he has talked about for years: building a public investment vehicle inspired by Warren Buffett. Pershing Square just filed to IPO a permanent-capital vehicle on the NYSE. The idea is simple but powerful. Most hedge funds operate

Bill Ackman is taking a step toward something he has talked about for years: building a public investment vehicle inspired by Warren Buffett.

Pershing Square just filed to IPO a permanent-capital vehicle on the NYSE.

The idea is simple but powerful.

Most hedge funds operate
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I don’t short stocks, but if I were to take a mid-term short position, my candidate would be $HGRAF @ 11.18 CAD share price ~4 B$ market cap The stock is also up +30x over the past year, helped by heavy promotion across social media. HydroGraph develops graphene, an advanced

I don’t short stocks, but if I were to take a mid-term short position, my candidate would be $HGRAF

@ 11.18 CAD share price
~4 B$ market cap

The stock is also up +30x over the past year, helped by heavy promotion across social media.

HydroGraph develops graphene, an advanced