Fireside chat between BoJ Himino and Fed Williams! m.youtube.com/watch?v=1XLWWS…

This makes no sense and is a silly article

The official population stats have slowed MUCH faster than the population estimates in the LFS. LFS y/y pop growth: 2.7% Official y/y growth: 1.2% This suggests job growth could be much slower than what the LFS is reporting (and consistent with flat y/y SEPH payrolls).

I can absolutely assure you that the oil market is NOT currently pricing in a 27% probability that Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. Brent would likely be $10-20/bbl higher if that really were the case.

China crude stocks are going to drop fairly quickly imo

This doesn’t surprise me - most don’t verify or read

So where did we land on Jevon’s paradox

From the SEP: The median core PCE projection for 2025 is 3.1%, but there’s one official that put down 2.5% and three that put down 3.5%. The median number of cuts for 2026 fell to one cut (previously two). No one changed their long-run dot (or if they did, they traded places)

Wait colby has moved from FT?

“No one holds these forecasts with much conviction”

Honestly v reasonable view

I love Nick Timiraos 's question on why projections are diverging within the committee - the question of "do policy projections reflect different forecasts or different reaction functions". Powell's fairly lengthy answer puts the weight on differing forecasts...

Lol what is this question? “Don’t you owe the American public some sort of explanation”

Still thinking about how many of my priors were confirmed via this report. Honestly feel like despite the conclusions I am sleeping well tonight

With oil volatility spiking, as is typical, Goldman says traders pulled down position sizing with Brent aggregate open interest Friday and Monday registered its largest 2 day drop (-$13.3bn) for at least the past 2.5 years. "If true, this leaves term structure positioning very

Japan CPI is just in an awful situation