The correlation between uncertainty shocks and changes in inflation expectations has turned negative over the past 25 years. In a recent paper, we argue that the lower bound on interest rates is the key factor behind it.

With the yield curve quite flat in some parts, here are links to SF Fed Economic Letters I wrote with Michael Bauer: frbsf.org/economic-resea… and frbsf.org/economic-resea…. Thanks to Mary C. Daly for highlighting our research.

Recession indicators from the yield curve are sending mixed signals. Michael Bauer and I are sorting through them in today's SF Fed EL: frbsf.org/economic-resea…. We argue in favor of the 10y-3m spread.

Lorie K. Logan is named as the Dallas Fed’s next president and CEO. dallasfed.org/fed/presidenti…

Service occupations and jobs with close social contact were hit the worst by the pandemic recession. Our latest Letter discusses how unemployment across occupations differed from historical patterns: sffed.us/3yJNcFZ | #SFFedResearch #EconTwitter #Unemployment #Jobs

Do we know when a recession will happen? Our latest Economic Letter discusses the jobless unemployment rate as an advance predictor of recessions: sffed.us/3I1c2G7 | #SFFedResearch #EconTwitter #Unemployment

Is there another way to predict recessions? Our latest Economic Letter suggests that the jobless #unemployment rate as a predictor is almost as accurate as the Treasury yield curve but more accurate in the near term: sffed.us/3I1c2G7 | #SFFedResearch #EconTwitter

SF Fed research: The unemployment rate has been a very good near-term predictor of recessions. "The jobless rate does not currently signal an impending recession" but it does suggest "the business cycle is at a maturing stage" when expansions often end frbsf.org/wp-content/upl…

This has been a while in the making but now we're live! You can check out our research, events and data products at frbsf.org/CMR and subscribe to our mailing list to stay in the loop. Thanks to sylvainecon Thomas M Mertens and Pascal Paul for making this possible!

Having to update my website always feels like having to go to the dentist. I dread it beforehand - but then I'm so happy when it's done. Here's the product: sites.google.com/site/thomasmic…

🚨Call for Papers🚨 Together with the Bank of Canada and the Chicago Fed, we're organizing a Conference on #FixedIncome Research and Implications for #MonetaryPolicy on May 22-23, 2025, in San Francisco. If you have a new paper that might be a good fit, please submit it by

Call for Papers: 10th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance will be held at Santa Clara University. Submission deadline: January 13, 2025. Pdf here: sanjayrajsingh.github.io/CFP/Call_WCWIF… #EconTwitter Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Vito Cormun

Just how much has the cooling economy reduced inflation? A recent Economic Letter by Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro found that recent inflation dynamics can be at least partially explained by patterns of excess demand in the economy.

Fascinating paper on where 6000 global elites went to college. Billionaires, CEOs, heads of state, central bankers, etc. In a word: Harvard. Fully 10% of global elites went to Harvard. Elite US schools are over-represented (23% IvyPlus), but nobody comes close to Harvard. 🧵

I shared more of my thoughts today at Stanford University Hoover Institution - thanks to Senior Fellow John Cochrane for the terrific conversation. You can watch the event here: sffed.us/Hoover2024

A big thanks to the USC Marshall School's faculty for hosting an amazing macro-finance conference!

Thanks to our wonderful colleagues for putting together this video tinyurl.com/2j7t9x5m that highlights our research on the ZLB nyfed.org/3TorsbZ. The underlying data is available via the Center for Monetary Research at SF Fed: tinyurl.com/2tcwns4w