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Waterboy

@thewaterboy_ti

Deep dives into SEC and ACC Football + occasionally CBB + some NFL draft - analyzing where intel + data show available edges

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calendar_today13-12-2020 23:13:50

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In addition to CFB picks, I’ll also post my thoughts here on stuff I’m seeing so yall can look into what options you have on books and DFS sites. CFB main line and prop availability can vary widely so please feel free to DM me with any questions you have about what lines or

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Lines may have moved a smidge since last night in the meantime of getting down on these props, but I like them all even with a small movement. Week 1: Prop 1 - Haynes King over passing yards - Game is Friday - GT vs Colorado Various lines out there, which is often going to be

Lines may have moved a smidge since last night in the meantime of getting down on these props, but I like them all even with a small movement. 

Week 1: Prop 1 - Haynes King over passing yards - Game is Friday - GT vs Colorado  Various lines out there, which is often going to be
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Aware of weather forecasts in Tallahassee for Saturday, and not too concerned about it... 1) Florida weather is notoriously unpredictable. Forecast could be sunny right now and rain pop up the day of, or it could be predicted a terrible day of weather and end up being totally

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No time for write up but I'll explain in a bit. Line is moving already from this am. Main Play Robby Ashford o32.5 rushing yards - Wake Forest QB - 125 Fliff or 34.5 Bovada -115 if you don't have Fliff. Lean is under 219.5 passing yards Bovada -115

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Going ahead and calling the King play as a loss. Total misread from all info on how much they would utilize his legs this early in the season and CU never could threaten there when they had chances to build a lead. As perfectly as the Wake game props were predicted in my write

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Write ups coming... first three plays - SMU vs Baylor - 11 am central Sat - Yamir Knight SMU WR u52.5 yds (-130 Bet365) or u50.5 (-125 Fliff) - already moving. I got u54.5 but still play it at this number. - Duke vs Illinois - 11 am central Sat - Duke QB Mensah u12.5 rush

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2 leans Auburn QB Jackson Arnold under 0.5 rushing TDs (+105 Fliff) Kentucky QB Zach Calzada under 0.5 passing TDs (+175 Fliff) No write up really for Calzada since I touched mostly on why I don't like their offensive outlook in the SEC. Now, all it takes is a coverage bust or

2 leans
Auburn QB Jackson Arnold under 0.5 rushing TDs (+105 Fliff)
Kentucky QB Zach Calzada under 0.5 passing TDs (+175 Fliff)

No write up really for Calzada since I touched mostly on why I don't like their offensive outlook in the SEC. Now, all it takes is a coverage bust or
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Main Play #4 - Virginia Cavaliers RB J'Mari Taylor under 10.5 rush attempts (-115 Bet365, -130 Fliff)* *The fact it has been 4 unders today is not purposeful by the way lol

Main Play #4 - Virginia Cavaliers RB J'Mari Taylor under 10.5 rush attempts (-115 Bet365, -130 Fliff)*

*The fact it has been 4 unders today is not purposeful by the way lol
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Main Play 5 - Ok this is a 1.5 unit play. Only on Fliff at this line. Bet365 people could go .75u at 17.5 -120, but be on the look out for it possibly popping up other places. I’ll post once I hear it is out if it does anywhere else. Syracuse RB Yasin Willis over 15.5 rush

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Welp, looks like UL RB Isaac Brown was good to under 15.5 rush attempts after all. Absolute YPC monster, and UL OC truly can’t help himself from passing. Absolute head scratcher up 6, passes three times for a three and out late 4th. Some coaches just can’t. help. passing.

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Write ups coming after I go eat some lunch (I'm starving) but the plays are... - Washington State QB Jaxon Potter longest completion under 40.5 -115 (Bovada) - Stanford WR Bryce Farrell u41.5 yds -114 (propbuilder)

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Play #3 Got caught up looking at a bet before write ups. Getting it in cause it moved on Fliff and movement here on this prop is kind of big since it’s a small number. UGA RB receiving yards Nate Frazier o6.5 -115 Bovada

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Write ups for the three plays so far today. It worked out well though. Farrell is already down to 32.5 most places and 29.5 on Fliff.

Write ups for the three plays so far today. It worked out well though. Farrell is already down to 32.5 most places and 29.5 on Fliff.