Indeed: this is what GDP needs to be for as much as national security. Nobody rallies to a flag that doesn’t care about them. Markets are slow to grasp this fact, as usual.

Everyone’s blasting Trump for allowing H20 exports to China, but few see the logic: 1. US export controls are already leaking—over $1B in B100, H100 & H200 chips were smuggled into China in past 3 months; 2. If it’s already leaking, better to export “downgraded” chips officially,

2025, day 224 Good morning from Asia. ‘Ukraine prepared to cede territory held by Russia’ (Telegraph) as “Zelensky’s softened position comes ahead of Friday’s Trump-Putin peace summit in Alaska”; as Helsinki indicted the captain and two first officers of a Cook

And the inverse is true for those who look at tariffs!

🤨

2025, day 225 Good morning from Asia. In geopolitics, ‘Ukraine will not cede land that could be Russian springboard for new war, Zelenskyy says’, which seems to contradict yesterday’s news; An FT op-ed talks of Europe’s “Happy Vassal” status as being problematic; U.S. VP

2025, day 225 DVD extra

2025, day 226 Good morning from Asia. After talks with EU leaders, President Trump said there will be “very severe” consequences for Russia if President Putin won’t agree to a real ceasefire tomorrow and won’t trade territory - that implies real market consequences; as ‘Trump

Bifurcation continues apace

2025, day 227 Good morning from Asia. Ahead of today’s Alaska summit, President Trump said: "There is a 25% chance that the meeting with Putin tomorrow will not succeed. If there is no solution – I will impose sanctions on Russia". Putin thanked Trump for his “sincere and

The global Great Game continues.

Ray Dalio didn’t originate MMT anymore than I did mercantilism, but 🇨🇳 👀 👀 👀 on this. Ironically, China may fit MMT better than the West as it has excess capacity & a vast trade surplus, not a deficit. Never a dull moment in 2025.

But “free trade!” If you can’t see the Great Game now you shouldn’t be playing. Sadly, some aren’t.