Financial Times talked about how Malaysia wants to crack down on this... here is my favorite quote: "Nvidia’s Singapore office accounts for nearly a quarter of its global sales, raising suspicions in Washington that some of the chips are leaking into China." ft.com/content/d0267f…

Sensei 🔺 •Some goods will not be subject to the Reciprocal Tariff. These include: (1) articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b); (2) steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; (3) copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles; (4) all

Reciprocal tariffs, LOL. US Census data, divide trade balance by US imports, you get the Family Feud charts from today's presser. And last week some of you believed there was some magic chaos plan because CEA chair wrote a brief. They will come up with any numbers they need to

🚨🚨The early bird registration deadline to attend the Nottingham International Trade Summer School has been extended to April 15th! 🚨🚨 Do not miss out on learning the foundations of international trade theory from two top scholars in the field! Link: nottingham.ac.uk/gep/news-event…

I do not think that the government's formula is an appropriate way to think about reciprocal tariffs. And it is unclear what the note references or doesn’t from my research with Cavallo et al. But I believe our work suggests the value for the “elasticity of import prices to

Super useful from Simon J. Evenett & Johannes Fritz VoxEU IMD

*Trade war: my theory of the case* 1. What is the goal/ideal outcome/trump admin hopes: 10% tariff across the board with no retaliation + direct non-tariff favors from other countries to settle this at 10% + a possible full-scale bilateral trade war with China. (1/n)

What are the long-run consequences of trade wars on real wages and consumption? In a new note, David Baqaee and I show that capital adjustment matters a lot. Trade barriers raise the cost of investment goods, capital stocks shrink, and so do consumption and wages.

Try to imagine a US President telling Ford that they shouldn't sell cars to foreigners, and that they should cut their R&D. It wouldn't happen. But that's what we're doing to one of America's most important exports: Education. 🧵

How Tariffs Affect Trade Deficits... ... a new paper with amazing trade economist Arnaud Costinot. Many politicians and the general public expect tariffs to reduce imports lower imports and thus work to close a trade deficit. Economists typically say "not so fast"... 🧵1/n

🚨 GRAVITY for UNDERGRADS🚨 Very happy to share “Gravity for Undergrads” - a Chapter, designed to introduce the gravity model to undergraduate students and novices in trade. It comes with data and code in Stata & R. I hope it is useful. Gravity rules 💪 yotoyotov.com/Gravity_Underg…

🧵How are the 2025 US tariffs affecting consumer prices? Our new paper with Paola and Franco Vazquez uses daily retail data linked to country-of-origin info to provide some evidence: 1️⃣ Rapid Pricing Responses: Prices adjusted quickly following major tariff announcements

Did the 2018 U.S.-China trade war lead to rerouting through Vietnam? Dr. Edmund Malesky will present on Wednesday, May 21st at 11 am ET in our first Vietnam Firms and Labour Markets Online Seminar Series presentation. Register here eventbrite.ca/e/vietnam-firm…

🚨 Call for Papers: JIE–GCAP–BGS Conference on Geoeconomics 📍 Stanford GSB | 📅 Feb 27–28, 2026 📝 Submit papers by Sept 15, 2025 🔗 Call for papers: shorturl.at/r26Do Global Capital Allocation Project, Stanford Graduate School of Business

Fascinating interview with a researcher who spent 7 years working at Huawei:

A beta version of my slide deck for my upcoming lecture on Geoeconomics at Oxford this Friday is now online: sas.upenn.edu/~jesusfv/Lectu… I’m looking for feedback: What else should I include? Are there any important citations I might have missed? Please note: I don’t have room for

MY LATEST: Fear that a foreign export restriction will imperil economic security has driven part of the recent tariffs. How even modest cooperation over trade/industrial policy now requires like-minded countries also commit not to use export restrictions. piie.com/publications/w…

Vietnam’s latest administrative map beginning July 1 after reducing the number of administrative units from 63 to 34.

We just updated our tariff paper. We now assign products to precise HS-10 codes—replacing the older COICOP-HS mapping—and extend the price data through June 12. Imported prices are up ~3% since early March, a modest increase given the scale of announced tariffs. Most of the

Join us on Tuesday, June 24, 11 am ET, for the next Vietnam online seminar. Sung-Ju Wu will present “Foreign Profit Shifting and The Welfare Responses to The U.S.–China Trade War: Evidence from Manufacturers in Vietnam.” Register here: eventbrite.ca/e/vietnam-firm… Sung-Ju Wu