1/ Lessons From The Tech Bubble: Last year, I spent my winter holiday reading hundreds of pages of equity research from the 1999/2000 era, to try to understand what it was like investing during the bubble A few people recently asked me for my takeaways. Here they are -

That's the trend that Trump accelerates: almost mechanically, as the US refuses to care for the world's "commons" (health, climate, etc.) China will step up. That's the great irony of our age: the US, which largely built the post-war order we live in, is increasingly viewing it

WHY THE LONG-ETH/SHORT-BTC TRADE MATTERS Ethereum has sharply outperformed Bitcoin since July, with the ETH/BTC ratio up 130% from April lows. Sevens Report says this move carries implications beyond crypto. Historically, strong ETH/BTC rallies have preceded equity surges

Everyone studies legends like Livermore, Wyckoff, and Darvas but overlooks the biggest edge they had in common: • No intraday charts • No alerts • No news feeds • No 24/7 noise Their minds were quiet. They thought in weeks while you think in seconds.

"Robust is when you care more about the few who like your work than the multitude who dislike it (artists); fragile when you care more about the few who dislike your work than the multitude who like it (politicians)." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes

In 2025, Japan is the Boeing 737 MAX of major western democracies. And just as the 737 MAX didn’t crash just once, LDP crashed twice within a year of consecutive national elections - and it’s currently back in the air, flying blind somewhere over the Pacific, with all of its

We’ve seen this story before. In 2008, benchmark revisions erased more than -900k jobs, proving the recession was far deeper than initially reported. By the time the Fed reacted, it was already too late. The risk is repeating that mistake again.

Books on Markets I Want to Read or Re-Read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Lefèvre The Dao of Capital, Spitznagel Superforecasting, Tetlock & Gardner Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Mackay The Alchemy of Finance, Soros Devil Take the Hindmost,

Li Lu’s life story is quiet interesting

Stephen "Tariffs" Miran

Government Shutdown Facts The Media Won't Cover: 1. The average length of a shutdown is only ~8 days 2. The S&P 500 has ended higher one year after a shutdown in 86% of cases 3. The S&P 500 posts an average gain of +13% one year after the shutdown ends 4. During the 35 day

Musings of the Day, 10/2/25: I’ve been saying this for years now, but things are finally coming to head for OPEC+, as it is about to decide on whether or not there will be more Supply Cut unwinds. Lakshmi summarizes the Saudi’s frustration well in today’s note: 1.

Take your gambles; make your own luck. Life is WORTH A PUNT.

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I’ll take the other side of this. Equities are not well suited to perps. 1) Equities perform best when held over a longer period. If you’re holding for at least a year, the tax rate is lower for equities 2) If the equity has a dividend, you’re giving it up if you’re long. This

Extremely high signal. Has NEVER shown up anywhere except bear market bottoms.

Terence Tao says AI can lower mental effort so much that the brain may stop “lifting its own weights.” Early studies suggest reduced cognitive load can come with real harms, not just convenience. Math is especially vulnerable because it’s easy to outsource every step to a tool.

No complexity. No accident. 10/10 was caused by irresponsible marketing campaigns by certain companies. On October 10, tens of billions of dollars were liquidated. As CEO of OKX, we observed clearly that the crypto market’s microstructure fundamentally changed after that day.

Heads up 🌎-ex🇯🇵 markets people JPY may gap↓ Asia AM & reverse the sharp rally In a campaign speech PM Takaichi discussed weak vs strong JPY Her main point: “If we produce domestically we can build an economy resilient to FX swings” This is blowing up 🇯🇵media, but not 🌎(yet)

My biggest takeaways from jenny wen (design lead at Anthropic): 1. The traditional design process is breaking down. The classic discover-diverge-converge loop that designers have relied on for years doesn’t work when engineers can spin up seven coding agents and ship a