tl;dr

Seems like a good time to revisit this story and SigmaSquirrel's projections/position, in light of recent events and market adjustments. Do the incumbent books really want to allow a jolt with unknown consequences and accelerate migration right now? ingame.com/obbb-position-…

Jim Keyes (Blockbuster CEO, 2008):"Neither RedBox nor Netflix are even on the radar screen in terms of competition. It's more Wal-Mart and Apple."

Betting mispriced lines before the odds reflect new information is the definition of being a sharp sports bettor. Right? (This is new? Am I the unc here?)

I asked Claude to give me a haiku about this report: Not luck, just the math, FanDuel sells the dream at cost, Kalshi pays in truth. Deep stuff, man.

Kalshi’s market search algo feels like it was coded by a raccoon with access to a Bloomberg terminal.

I’m rooting for these Kalshi combo markets to figure out pricing, but we’re a long way. Quick price check on a 3-leg chalk parlay vs FanDuel, 35 cents worse. Parlaying heavy faves is a rec bettor staple, but here they’re worse off ~$16 per $100 wagered despite having better

“Four in Five Americans Can’t Name Three Branches of Government but Have Strong Views on the Regulation of Sports Events Contracts.” 🙄

Very thorough piece on our Bettors Voice report detailing the risks facing regulated sportsbooks if the gambling tax loss provision isn’t repealed. ➡️ sbcamericas.com/2025/10/06/one… Via Justin Byers / SBC Americas

All these stock analysts arguing about handle calcs at Kalshi — not one of them is actually talking to the player community. If they did, they’d see this is a real problem for DKNG and Flutter. ➡️ ingame.com/spruce-point-d… Via Jill Dorson // InGame

Again, if stock analysts covering mobile sports betting talked to actual bettors, they’d be agreeing with this take. Even if one makes the case that PM handle is “additive” to the market, every dollar transacted at PMs are a dollar that DKNG and Flutter aren’t getting.

I think he's wrong on losing current share to PMs. And I also think they take meaningful share of the remaining TAM of US citizens who have not, to date, engaged in sports betting.

Welp, that's a zero for me.

If you’re gonna bot Prediction Markets slop, don’t engineer it to reply three times to the same post. That Declan Barrett’s got a point, though.

🚨Congressman Max Miller has joined the bipartisan effort to permanently restore the 100% loss deduction from gambling winnings. Let’s get this commonsense fix through Ways and Means Democrats and to the House floor! #FAIRBETAct 🎲

I mean, he's not wrong.

My first reaction here is “I wonder what JB’s tax obligation will be for FY26 when he can only deduct 90% of losses?”

I didn't know it at the time, but the 9 years I spent station-trading in EVE Online was the best market-maker training I could have asked for. Analyzing order books, managing capital/margin/risk, penny-jumping, buying out/resetting liquidity, trading efficient vs inefficient

Ah yes, the ol' Martingale. Works every time until that one time.