Pose it the other way: if Presidents are absolutely criminally immune, then:

1. Joe Biden is unquestionably the most powerful human being that has ever existed in our species history.
2. He is President (dictator) for life.
3. Every opposition party in the country can be…

Gold +0.40% pre market on GDP
TLT -0.80% pre market on GDP

Q1 GDP +1.6% Annualized versus +2.5% EST.

But, consumption grew at +2.5%, so the underlying economy is still strong.

The miss was because the U.S. imported a lot more than expected.

The irony here is that China’s Q1 export figures were abysmal!

U.S. importing a lot. But…

I live in a world where I must constantly account for tail risks, and be prepared to capitalize (hopefully outsizedly) from things that are unlikely to happen, but if they do happen, would have devastating consequences for most traditional investments.

I focus excessively on…

The 2032 U.S. election will be won or lost on who can ensure social security recipients receive 100 cents on the dollar. The only thing both candidates in 2016, 2020, and 2024 agreed on was no cuts to social security or Medicare.

Higher taxes, or reduced spending, or both are…

Since 2008, most of annual nominal GDP growth has come from the annual deficit. Even more alarming than that, in many of those years, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expansion accounted for all of U.S. nominal growth.

Non-Fed balance sheet expansion, debt issuance, to fund…

I’m just thinking how there’s likely a fixed income trader somewhere in Tokyo right now, whose entire book on January 1st was long 1 year UST’s FX unhedged, and, if the year was ending today, he or she would be up ~15%, and would be in line to receive a 7 (or 8) figure bonus.

The market must absorb a combined $183 billion calendar of two-, five- and seven-year note sales — the first two of which will be at record levels.

Another major supply/demand test for the bond market this week.

(All of this before Q1 GDP or March PCE comes out).

I know I sound like a broken record, but I cannot stress this enough. 60/40 is a portfolio that works when equities and bonds are negatively correlated to one another. This is true in a disinflationary, low nominal growth, low geopolitical risk world (1981-2020).

60/40 is an…

Even if you don't own Bitcoin, you have to pay attention to it. It's a risk on asset that trades 24/7 with real liquidity. Take last night as an example.

Bitcoin nosedives at 9:00 PM as news breaks of bombs landing in Isfahan. The selling continues relentlessly until around…

Shoutout to Kavalan Single Malt Whisky! Taiwanese. 58% Alc./Vol.

Gold has a market capitalization of ~$17T - based on 220K tonnes mined.

China has the largest FX reserve in the world at around $3.25T. About 50-60% of this is assumed to be U.S. assets. Treasuries, mortgage backed securities, money market funds, etc.

China owns about 1% of…

Oil forwards are priced to see $76 oil in Q1 2025.

Given:
1) A secularly strong U.S. economy

2) China's Q1 2024 GDP prints being stronger than expected

3) Geopolitical risk up not down

4) Germany and the UK slowly recovering (and getting a tailwind from ECB and BOE projected…

Madrid beating City in Manchester in penalties… and Mbappe on the way to the Bernabeu this summer.

Scary.

Woah 20s!

*US 20Y BONDS DRAW 4.818% VS 4.843% PRE-SALE WHEN-ISSUED YIELD

*U.S. 19-YR 10-MO BONDS BID/COVER RATIO 2.82 VS. 2.79 PREVIOUS AUCTION