Fernando Come on, not every day, just most. Tomorrow will be -2%. We will see a small bounce before the main event week of 9/16.

The federal reserve does not surprise markets. They almost always change interest rates to match what is priced in. There are two times in the last 20 years they didn't. One was the week of Lehman collapse and the other was the week of SVB collapse. So, lesson learned?

We now officially have a Hindenburg Omen cluster. A cluster of 2 or more gives confidence to signal. Historically there is a 70% chance of a 5%+ decline from this price over the next 3 months. In 1/3 of cases the decline was 20%+. $SPY.

We are now in the Puetz crash window. The set up is looking like a lot of previous crashes with a decline starting 9/1 and a corrective bounce (starting 9/9). Next week is the lunar eclipse. Things could get wild.

Watching closely.

Reminder: Beginning next week many $SPY companies begin going into buyback blackout period before earnings. It is during the blackout periods that the April decline and July/August declines happened.

Perfect week. All 5 days green for $SPY. Have a wonderful weekend! Next week is going to be fun. Lots of stuff converging.

The fact that our $35 trillion deficit was not brought up during the Presidential debate is an absolute disgrace. It’s the number one problem facing this country. PERIOD. Nothing else is even close.

A lot of people using this to forecast the next year. Misleading chart. Notice how the average is ~200 days but the clusters are in <100 days and >300 days. Do not use for timing purposes.

A misleading volume chart. Total dollars traded = shares x price. As price has gone up, shares traded has declined. Total dollars traded is not trending down.

Based on most people I follow, consensus seems to be that $SPY is going to new ATH. Then from there it might drop. Maybe that’s what happens, but I get uncomfortable when everyone is predicting the same path.

Puetz crash window. "The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower –waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace.” - Puetz

$SPY up 6 consecutive days. Daily MACD crossover (bullish). Looking primed to break to ATH. Layoffs subdued, GDP growth strong, everything seems ok (for now). Everyone I follow says market is going up, at least short term. Is this a big fakeout?

Market at all time highs. It's important to remember how quickly sentiment can change. Getting close to +250 points in a week. Moves down generally happen faster. $SPY

Truly calm before the storm. I don't know if anyone is ready for the volatility we are going to see over the next 30 days.

Watch price closely. Full moon is passing. Puetz window. Lunar eclipse tomorrow. Weird things happen. We hit all time highs, day before vix opex. Playing out beautifully.

$SPY July: 7 consecutive up days August: 8 consecutive up days September: 7 consecutive up days so far (tomorrow would make it 8!) While not RARE, these events tend to be uncommon, usually <1 per year.

Remember that the only decision that matters is Powell's. This isn't a democratic vote. The most others can do is dissent (which hasn't happened since 2005). I bet there are going to be voices in the room asking why they are cutting at all. We won't know until minutes released.

Did a bearish Doji star just get followed up with a bearish Doji star?I've never seen that...

The economic data is going to start looking bad in 7-14 days. There will be fears the labor market is deteriorating quickly. I predict sentiment becomes negative.