To put things into perspective:

There are only 8% of SPY components above their 20D. Doesn't mean we are done-done going down-down - big picture. 😉🔥

But the chance of a Monday bounce should worry newly-anointed bears.

I'm an old bear:
✅Already warned clients March 1st…

The 'Short VIX Calls' is no longer working for bulls...

As dealers are basically 'all naked' upside VIX calls should real panic kick in.

As I warned clients April 12th: 'Panic Hasn't Even Started Yet'.

The Basis Trade is still out there...

No shit.

Because this is just a bad rap song.

youtu.be/eeGcxi7HAUI?si…

🙄🤬

Just looking to close the loop here on the short term liquidity drain from tax payments out of bank reserves and into the TGA. We can see, as I expected, bank reserves fell mightily in the week ending Wednesday, down $286bn to $3.329trn, basically a 6m low.

The TGA is up to…

$SPX did just have 5 red days in a row.

Usually this falls into my '5 Bar Rule' when we are due a countertrend bounce.

But even if we do, that doesn't mean this equity correction is over. Far from it.

CTAs have just started selling...

'Like all good Ponzi Schemes, as long as more capital goes in than out, the Scheme inflates.'
Kuppy

Love that quote.
pracap.com/my-favorite-po…

#Bitcoin ⤵️

Fascinating, to me anyway.

'If you want to know what future federal tax collections are going to look like, just look at what the stock market has done over the past 12 months.

and the level of tax collections also affects how the stock market does.'

🎩Tom McClellan…

When I boil it down, I find my feelings about AI are actually pretty similar to my feelings about blockchains.

Just a quarter of the way through the year (through March) and the Reserve Bank of India has already purchased more gold than it did all of last year. Central bank gold accumulation is a trend that shows no signs of stopping.

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Excellent thread.

Everything you wanted to know about US Government Debt but were afraid to ask!

Nice feedback:

'Your clients should be ecstatic!!!! When you say 'Conviction' you mean conviction. The $NVDA 'Stairway to Heaven' was the only thing really pulling the whole market skywards since November-- thereby delaying the inevitable - especially when Powell 'Changed his…

Geoffrey has that French humor. Geoffrey Fouvry

Q: What's your view of markets here?

A: 'Dimon selling 180 million USD and shooting for 8% rates is telling you what you need to know.'

🤣👍🔥

LAST Thursday for clients:

Equity Correction Is My Baseline Bet

So far so good on timing this correction 😉💃

Solid Point: we have “upper pressure on yields as the forward supply comes to market.” #bonds

#TreasuryAuctions

Don't miss this live webinar with Samantha LaDuc & Craig Shapiro
Are We Repeating the October 2023 Risk-off Event? With bond yields rising, $ strong, geopolitical concerns top mind, are markets at risk of a quick move lower?

⏰ LIVE at 4PM ET TODAY
Register ⬇️
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Tis true.

And my Swing Portfolio for clients is all green.

#LiveTradingRoom

'Yields Are Going To Crash Up'

CLUB/EDGE posts April 12th

Panic Hasn't Even Started Yet

samanthaladuc.com/p/yields-are-g…