前段塔勒布在告诉人们: 打工是件超高风险的事，小概率事件来临后，打工仔有灭顶之灾。 这还是在延续黑天鹅这本书关于概率的解释。 普通人认为的小概率是致命的。 我曾跟国产电车爱好者解释这个，他们没听懂。 电车燃烧是小概率，小于油车，但你死亡的概率是油车燃烧的几百倍。

投资策略一定与自身的现金流有很大关系，如果现金流不稳定，资金盘子小。适合研究短线，杠杆策略，高风险高收益，用以聚集资金。但没有专业团队，不建议长期玩短线，必输。有稳定现金流，先建仓稳健龙头股，有一定仓位和利润后，拿10-20%追潜力股，碰到潜力股爆发一次基本可以跨一个台阶。

When I assess volatility path I focus on key things: - actual (current) LONG / SHORT dealer positioning in both SPX options and VIX options through time (0-60dte) - current vol surface and related metrics; their implications, percentiles etc. - recent behavior - estimates for

Oracle did not drop 15% because “AI is over.” It dropped because the market is relearning how to price the AI value chain. I read this crash less as “Oracle is finished,” and more as the first clean reset of AI infrastructure forecast and true alpha. The story is shifting

No panic. No euphoria. Just audit season. The door isn’t closing, it’s being priced. Retail investor doesn’t need forecasts. It needs rules: presence, entries, and emotional immunity. This wasn’t an “AI is strong” earnings season. It was the first audit season. Whether data

The hardest truth I keep telling subscribers is that doing nothing is often the correct response when $SPY & $QQQ are below their 50-day & the VIX is still in the teens. Pullbacks like this are a redistribution from investors who need clarity immediately to those who understand

Deep| $INTC: Agentic AI and Supply Bottlenecks Drive Server CPU Structural Shortage A month later, our updated INTC research shows we're actually seeing even more severe CPU shortages. Based on our research into LLMs and supply chain checks, server shipments in 2026 are

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Weekly|Momentum Unwind with Investors Switching Mindset, Optical results, Gaming Names, Software, Memory, INTC, and more It feels like broken record that we keep repeating the volatility has gone wilder by week. We are no market expert, and we seldom comment on its movement.

长时间极致的独处，极致的专注，整段式的巨量阅读，无上限不被打扰的睡眠，禁止被低能量人灌输任何观点，主动隔绝被低能量人吞食任何资源（情绪/时间/注意力等）。 俯视自己，了解自己的激素规律，了解自己身体所缺元素及时进行进食补给，抗组胺降低炎症率与降低消耗。

Be honest, is this relatable??

Skew dropping before implied volatility falls is NOT a good sign for the bulls. Here's why... youtu.be/WYWVPNxbfDc

unusual_whales I dont know who needs to hear this but, take profits next time🫡

Chaofan Shou here's what the codebase looks like

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传奇人物Linda Raschke Linda Raschke 在Market Report的访谈，讲到了交易中的如何获得优势（以实现长期正期望结果）并做好与优势相洽和的自我认知： 1）长期能不能赚钱其实只取决于你手里有没有 edge。这个 edge

An unusually long post from me, but I had to get this off my chest. TL;DR: Investors have consistently underestimated what these companies are capable of. And at major inflection points when meaningful news finally drops the stock price often plunges first, before eventually

Tim Cook is one of the greatest CEOs of all time and the cope from the haters this cycle has been frankly a sight to behold. When he took over Apple in 2011, it was a $350B consumer hardware company that was selling the iPhone 4 lol. Now it’s a $4T+ free cash flow machine where

这个 芬兰饶舌歌手的MV 在英推已经传疯了，估计还有很多人没有看过。一镜到底，没有任何技术，但整个MV就是一个编舞和审美与执行的炫技。 我太喜欢了！特别是那些 AI 东西看多了，审美疲劳，看见这种人类的创意加执行出来的精品，那种张力就忽然让我意识到，很多事情机器真的替代不了。