In recent polls, I think our most revealing questions are these looks back at how people viewed policies/impacts. Horse race aside, many voters across the partisan spectrum feel Trump's policies helped them and were good years for the country. Voters feel the opposite about Biden

Four Years Out, Some Voters Look Back at Trump’s Presidency More Positively
nytimes.com/2024/04/14/us/…

Biden inches up in our latest New NYT/Siena poll
Trump: 46
Biden: 45
nytimes.com/2024/04/13/us/…

a great write-up by Ruth Igielnik of the latest Pew report on party ID in the U.S. In 2020, Ds outnumbered Rs (including leaners)

now, Ds & Rs are evenly divided, due in part to increasing R gains among voters without a college degree

nyti.ms/3xphuiC

Rigged: Florida lawyer writes rules to win condo auctions for $100. Judges let him do it., w/Brittany Wallman miamiherald.com/news/business/…

I am still being cautious (I've already been burned by seeing a shift toward Biden this cycle, and I'd like to see high-quality polling confirm it), but this could be something. The prolific online polls have trended toward Biden over the last few weeks
twitter.com/mattmfm/status…

Maybe overlooked finding from our poll: what do people mean when they say the economy is good/bad? If you think the economy is going well, you're looking at jobs, the stock market, if you think the economy is only fair or poor, prices and inflation are a big part of that thinking

An important piece of research: debunking the viral poll showing increased holocaust denial AND exposing flaws with some opt-in online panels that harbor bogus respondents

See below, 12% of young people in an opt-in panel said they were licensed to operate a class SGGN submarine

Something fun for our next poll nytimes.com/2024/03/01/ups…

Americans are more likely than people in any of the other 26 countries surveyed by Pew Research Global to say that social media has been more of a 𝐛𝐚𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠 for democracy in their country. pewrsr.ch/3SREz4v

While all these numbers seem like good news for Trump, by a 49-41 margin voters actually say that Trump’s actions on January 6 do disqualify him from appearing on state ballots.

Yet he wins on the ballot, 49-45!

I wrote a new thing! A brief history lesson on why we should be very cautious about hypothetical questions testing reactions to a potential Trump conviction + more on what such questions on recent Yahoo News/YouGov polls tell us about attitudes now
today.yougov.com/politics/artic…