Highest close since December 2023. Congrats to the $RIVN bulls and to Rivian for the great execution (Q3 earnings, Autonomy Day). Fundamentals will drive this much higher over the long term.

The second-mover advantage is real. $RIVN will spend a fraction of what $TSLA has spent to reach L3+ autonomy. End-to-end from day one. High-res sensors and advanced simulation require less training data and compute. AWS eliminates infrastructure capex.

Expect $RIVN to raise capital in Q1. $7.1B may appear sufficient, but the R2 ramp and Georgia construction will draw it down quickly. By mid-2026, cash runway falls below 12 months. With the stock near 52-week highs, the window is open. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/riviandd/p…

PSA: Rivian's reported free cash flow of -$489M (LTM) doesn't reflect actual cash burn. Strip out one-time VW benefits and working capital tailwinds and you get -$3.7B. Expect Q4 FCF around -$1.5B, and -$1.2B+ per quarter in 2026. $RIVN

UBS downgraded $RIVN today. Their 2026 revenue estimate: $5.7B vs $5.3B in 2025. So they're modeling... zero R2 sales? Even software & services growth alone adds $500M+. This is the disconnect I wrote about a week ago. They'll revise.

How many R2s will $RIVN actually build this year? My base case: 29k in 2026, increasing to 148k in 2027. That 2027 figure is 50k+ above the Street — even my bear case beats consensus. Full breakdown here: riviandd.substack.com/p/how-many-r2s…

Looks like Rivian went with a Chinese supplier for the R2 lidar. ~$200/unit vs $500+ for western alternatives. Cost is everything on R2. $RIVN

Afonso This is my research. If you're going to cover it, credit the source. x.com/Rivian_DD/stat…

Ran the numbers on the OBBB car loan interest deduction — here's what Rivian buyers could actually save: • $1.1k for R2 over 2 yrs • $2.2k for R1 over 3 yrs Doesn't replace the $7.5k EV tax credit. But not nothing either. $RIVN

Big week ahead for $RIVN. R2 reviews drop tomorrow morning. Earnings Thursday. If they release reservation data, deliver strong guidance, and raise capital shortly after, they could address every major concern from the Street in one fell swoop.

My $RIVN Q4 earnings preview. All eyes on R2 and 2026 delivery guidance—my base case is 68k deliveries (vs. 64k consensus). riviandd.substack.com/p/rivian-q4-ea…

$RIVN Q4 2025 earnings are out. 2026 guidance: 64.5k deliveries (vs 64k consensus), -$1.95B Adj. EBITDA Q4 results (beat on top and bottom line): • Revenue: $1.29B vs $1.26B est. • Gross profit: $120M vs. $25M est. • Adj. EPS: –$0.54 vs –$0.67 est. • Cash: $6.1B

Overall a strong report from $RIVN. Expecting some upgrades from the Street. Biggest surprises: • Reg credits are BACK! $30M or $3.1k/vehicle • R1 ASP down $3.5k/vehicle QoQ • Warranty adjustment of $46M (one-time COGS tailwind) • OpEx down $54M QoQ

If Rivian is going to announce a capital raise, today after the close would make sense. Stock is up 30% and news gets buried on a long weekend. $RIVN

The biggest reason for $RIVN to offer leasing at launch: maximize conversion. Leasing makes it a lot easier to say yes, especially with Gen 3 not coming until next year. The higher the conversion rate, the stronger the demand story for the Street. x.com/RivianUpdates/…

$RIVN CFO: "...there's a much faster path to profitability for R2 being dropped into a running facility than a standalone greenfield site." Here's what that actually looks like (chart shows depreciation, but same applies to all plant fixed costs)

This "fastest EV to 20k" chart from TechCrunch is making the rounds, but the timeline is wrong. $RIVN R2 production starts in April, not June. For some reason, reporters keep reading "Q2 deliveries" as June 30th. So 6 months is really 9. Just your average production ramp.

Winter testing is complete across all three VW brands (VW, Audi, Scout). This unlocks the full $1B in equity, priced at 30-day VWAP (~$15.88). Add Uber's $300M and Q1 cash should be roughly flat at ~$6.1B despite the burn. $RIVN