Policy Points: Trump departs for Scotland as DC winds down. Senate, House both out—W&M Republicans hit the trail with field hearings. Budget brinkmanship brews: Dems plot strategy, Thune eyes shutdown optics, and Senate GOP fractures over rescissions. Powell survives… for now.

So far this year, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft have advanced 4% at an annual rate. Prices for capital equipment have increased 4% at an annual rate.

Stop Whining, Own What’s Working - Jeff deGraaf open.spotify.com/episode/7kMsnh…

Trump’s Backdoor VAT - Neil Dutta open.spotify.com/episode/7kMsnh…

The Juice Isn’t Worth the Squeeze - Steve Pavlick open.spotify.com/episode/7kMsnh…

The pros already rely on it. Now it’s your turn: renmac.com/trial

Here’s RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research’s take

The dot is Today, the line is expected returns over the next 3-months $SPX. From a pure seasonal perspective, we're in the weakest 3m stretch for stocks starting this week.

Beta as a metric is one of the more vulnerable areas of the market, says Renaissance Macro's deGraaf cnb.cx/45mr2JM

Conference Board Labor Differential hit a fresh low in July. A sign of ongoing cooling in labor markets.

We're dubious of news-driven breakouts, and warned of tariff noise around copper's recent surge. That said, it's a bullish chart in need of a consolidation but seasonal tendencies work against the metal over the next 3-months. #copperseasonals

Trade, inventory investment and public sector spending & investment adding 2.2ppts in Q2, according to Atlanta Fed. Thus, private domestic demand running under 1% in real terms.

This is a basket of 15 Meme stocks from UBS, it has started to crack. Broader implication for $SPX, probably more in factors than market, but notable.

The main reason for the disconnect between BLS and ADP right now appears to be education & health services. The former has been rising by roughly 75,000 per month. By contrast, ADP is contracting by 35,000 per month over the last three months.

Neil at RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research: Q2 GDP was soft under the hood Real final sales to domestic purchasers rose just 1.1 percent SAAR, the weakest since Q3 2022 linkedin.com/posts/dutta-ne…

AI SPENDING IS EATING THE US ECONOMY Per RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research’s Dutta: “So far this year, AI capex, which we define as information processing equipment plus software has added more to GDP growth than consumers’ spending” sherwood.news/markets/the-ai…

On net, Powell's language is dovish around inflation even though inflation is not yet at 2%