🚨🚨🚨BREAKING: The Supreme Court rules that South Carolina’s congressional map is *not* a racial gerrymander, reversing lower court. Alito writing for mostly 6-3 court. Liberals dissent. Opinion here: supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf…

New Cook Political Report (+BSG/GS Strategies) swing state polls: Trump leads, w/ third party candidates pulling slightly more from Biden. Cost of living by far top concern, and 66% think Biden won't be able to finish a second term. cookpolitical.com/survey-researc…

Super excited about our swing state polling project Cook Political Report is doing with BSG and GS Strategies. Lots of great data here, but main take-away is that cost of living concerns are currently overriding all else in this campaign. cookpolitical.com/survey-researc…

New Cook Political Report: GOP Uvalde congressman who voted for bipartisan gun control legislation in political fight of his life vs. YouTuber who calls himself the “AK Guy” in next week’s #TX23 runoff. Full analysis by Erin Covey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

I published a deep look at the political geography of Nevada, where Trump is outperforming his 2020 results more than any other state in the union, making it his best bet for flipping a state he's lost twice. patrickruffini.com/p/can-trump-tu…

New Cook Political Report: Outside money floods Oregon’s Dem primaries, w/ the potential to sink progressive favorites Susheela Jayapal (D) in #OR03 and Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) in #OR05 . Full analysis by Erin Covey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

New Cook Political Report: Republicans still strongly favored for Senate control, but Arizona shifts in Democrats’ favor. cookpolitical.com/analysis/senat…

NEW: in a victory for Dems/civil rights groups, the Supreme Court has granted a stay of a lower court ruling invalidating Louisiana's map, restoring a new Black majority district ( #LA06 ) for the 2024 election.

The number of women in Maryland's congressional delegation is poised to jump from zero to three in one cycle, as #MDSEN Angela Alsobrooks (D), #MD03 Sarah Elfreth (D) & #MD06 April Delaney (D) all win their primaries tonight.

Btw, the #MDSEN Dem primary isn't on track to be particularly close. Alsobrooks is poised to carry all the major metro counties.

As expected, #NE02 Rep. Don Bacon (R) wins the GOP primary and will face Tony Vargas (D) again in the fall. Cook Political Report November rating: Lean R.

Angela Alsobrooks (D) gaining steam as more votes are counted. She's in the driver's seat now versus David Trone (D). #MDSEN

I've seen enough: Rep. Carol Miller (R) defeats Derrick Evans (R) in the #WV01 GOP primary.

Could Angela Alsobrooks (D) win a #MDSEN Dem primary by winning just Prince George's, Charles, Baltimore City and nothing else? We may be about to find out...

New Cook Political Report House overview by Erin Covey and me: Six months out, plenty of Dems appear poised to outrun Biden down-ballot. But will it be enough to flip the House? It’ll come down to roughly two dozen districts. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…

Since 2016, only 1 SEN candidate (Collins in ME) has been able to win a state the POTUS nominee of their party lost. Today’s NYT/Siena polling suggests that we could see that trend break in ‘24 to SEN DEMs favor as their brand is stronger than Biden.

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New Cook Political Report rating change: Rep. Henry Cuellar's (D) indictment moves #TX28 from Likely D to Lean D. Full analysis by Erin Covey: cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…