Leadership observation: Andy Jassy is more similar to Bezos than other leaders of mega-cap companies who have taken the reigns from founders. This isn't necessarily good or bad, but more a reflection of business needs at the time of handoff. The best example on the opposite end

"Market Chaos Fuels Viewing Spike for Cable Business Channels" - The Hollywood Reporter The real winners amidst the recent volatility have been those who deliver the news. I give reporters a ton of credit working around the clock and consistently talking about real time

This has been the obvious worry and worst case scenario that global markets seem to be increasingly grappling with. Media is just starting to talk about it given recent events. I suspect we have time, but need to show incremental improvement getting our fiscal house in order.

Every dunk on someone for their short-term market call is going to age poorly. Every dunk on someone dunking on someone for short-term market calls is going to age poorly. If YOU get tempted to dunk on someone for their call or their dunk, just know that you will be wrong soon.

AI anecdote: one of my co-workers who has become excellent at leveraging AI chatbots in his day to day has been incredibly impressed with Gemini 2.5. He bought Google $GOOGL shares after his experience. Curious if others feel similarly.

Oil prices are down ~30% in the last year. The impact on inflation shouldn't be underestimated.

The market went down on worrisome trade policy. Then went up on some relief to that policy. Unfortunately the US aggravated people and those people sold treasuries, leading to higher bond yields. 10-year now >4.40% with volatility spiking (VIX >40). Now the uncertainty around

Three Macro Truths: 1) Nobody knows what final trade policy will look like 2) Even if Trump TOLD us, we couldn't rely on his word 3) Even if we could rely on it, we wouldn't know what it would actually do in the real world = Uncertainty x 3 Markets hate uncertainty.

Gold is doing its job. The best way to track the value / depreciation of the US Dollar is through the dollar price of gold, not a basket of other currencies. That said, DXY is <$100, which obviously matters on a relative basis.

Last week treasury yields saw largest weekly increase since 2001. Base rates don't feel too high or too low relative to historical standards. The volatility of yields is the most important indicator right now - investors need certainty. Making a short term call on rates right

“in bull markets people put a premium on promises and in bear markets they put a discount on reality” - James Chanos

In baseball terms, equity investing is about slugging percentage and credit investing is about on-base percentage.

Risk mgmt at many high profile single manager funds simply doesn't exist and will never exist. The incentives to maximize exposure in a system with a positive expected return are too asymmetric and too lucrative to the founders.

"United Airlines $UAL Is So Unsure About the Economy It Offers Two Profit Scenarios" - link below. They said adjusted EPS will be $11.50 to $13.50 a share this year if the current environment remains stable, or as little as $7 a share if the US economy enters a recession. I

US defense capabilities approaching escape velocity as silicon valley is embraced by the government. SpaceX, Palantir $PLTR, and Anduril is a tough team to beat. Sam Rohr reuters.com/business/aeros…

The idea / purpose of DOGE is excellent but that doesn't seem to have been the reality. I give Elon credit for giving his best efforts to the US taxpayer within the guardrails provided. But Trump (and congress) understands that if he touches meaningful elements of government

Two of my favorite quotes from Howard Marks' latest memo: Nobody Knows (Yet Again). This means that if we insist on achieving certainty or even confidence as a precondition for action, we’ll be frozen into inaction. Or, I dare say, if we conclude we’ve reached decisions with

Robert Half $RHI stock back at Covid levels tells you something about labor market sentiment. “For the first quarter of 2025, global enterprise revenues were $1.352 billion, down 8 percent from last year’s first quarter on a reported basis, and down 6 percent on an adjusted

People like stocks again.

While we continue to see mixed data points / earnings reports, many pockets of the consumer economy are still spending on experiences. $LYV, $DIS, $UBER, and others have seen very little evidence of slowing consumer demand. Separately, I like Disney's approach to the first