AOC has surged into second in the RacetotheWH primary polling average. She's been pulling massive crowds in her tour with Bernie Sanders across the country, at a time when many Democratic Primary voters are looking for a fighter.

Today, we added two updates to RacetotheWH 1. We added a 2nd polling average for the 2028 Democratic Primary, which tracks the race if Kamala Harris doesn't run for President. 2. In the Senate & Gov Primary Polling Avg, it's now clear which polls were sponsored by a campaign.

Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen dramatically since "Liberation Day", back on April 2nd. April 2nd: Approve 46.8%, Disapprove 50.3% April 10th: Approve 43.6%, Disapprove: 53.8% Net Approval: -3.5% to -10.2% Source: RacetotheWH Approval Rating Tracker

This term, Trump's support is softer then his first term. Internally, I'm tracking Trump's "strongly approve/disapprove" rating, and only 26.8% of voters say they strongly approve, while 16.3% only somewhat approve.

Here's the full four part average, which uses over x polls: Strongly Approve: 26.8% Somewhat Approve: 16.3% Somewhat Disapprove: 10.2% Strongly Disapprove: 43.8%

Big blow for Republicans. Jon Ossoff is polling great against every other Republican. Remember - Ossoff beat a sitting Senator last time, in a Georgia that has since moved to the left. He's going to be very tough to beat

Zohran Mamdani has pulled within single digits of Andrew Cuomo in the RacetotheWH NYC Polling Average

New on RacetotheWH - you can now simulate the NYC Mayor Race through Ranked Choice Voting! racetothewh.com/nycmayorpolling

After the Emerson Poll, Zohran Mamdani is just 2.2% behind Cuomo in my Ranked Choice Simulation. Combined with the strong early voting, this race is now a tossup.

Americans love their astronauts, so much so that I had to change my Senate forecast to give Astronauts a boost, because they kept doing so much better than my forecast expected.

In my polling-driven simulation of ranked choice voting, Zohran Mamdani trails Andrew Cuomo by just 3%. This race is so competitive because Zohran is decisively winning Lander supports 64% to 36% in the final round over Cuomo. (1/3)

A historic stroke of bad luck for Andrew Cuomo. His campaign is banking on a strong election day turnout to win - and NYC has its hottest day in more than a decade.

Courtesy of Google Trends, Mamdani has been searched more than all the other candidates combined over the last twenty four hours.

The early vote came in all at once, and it's very strong for Zohran Mandami, who starts with a 37k lead in Round 1 over Cuomo before counting the election day vote.

I strongly believe Mamdani is going to win this race. He's got a very good shot at outright leading the first round, and polls showed him winning Lander voters almost 2-1 in the final round of ranked choice voting.

I plugged in the current NYC Mayor results into my Ranked Choice Simulation, and Zohran Mamdani's lead gets stronger, expanding from 7.1% to 11.2%.

The general election NYC Mayor Polling Average is now live on RacetotheWH, and Zohran leads Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa by more then 16% to start the race.

With Tillis out of the picture, Democrats odds of flipping North Carolina surge to 65% in my Senate Forecast at Race to the WH. It will go up to 71% if Roy Cooper wins the nomination.

Now live on RacetotheWH - the Governor Midterm Forecast! Explore my predictions for every state, which will be updated daily with the latest polls and information from now until election day! racetothewh.com/governor/26

My ranked choice simulation came very close to the final result. Simulation: Zohran Mamdani wins 55.6% to 44.4%. Actual Result: Zohran Mamdani wins 56.0% to 44.0%