The stimulus provides $150 b for states. It won't be nearly enough. Think lost sales tax, alcohol tax, hotel tax, etc. And then there are public pensions... which hold a lot of equities. We won't know how bad for months.

Pelosi mentions "pension guarantees" as part of phase 4... and so it begins.

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And so it begins, the state finance massacre...pewtrusts.org/en/research-an…

Being in Texas, I think it was renamed OMG!

Hmm. Can I rent a tanker truck or two, get paid $40/barrel for May delivery oil, and have it sit until June when I can deliver it elsewhere for $20?

The trouble with #oilprice isn't over. Suppliers cut almost 10m/bpd, or less than 10%, while consumption is down an estimated 40% or more. To abuse an analogy, this should be the canary in the oil well for other industries.

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Talking to friends, not sure people get what's coming. #Maymageddon is almost here. Unemployment shoots higher, rent and mortgage payments plummet, sales tax pukes. What business built on density of customers survives or thrives with social distancing?

Remdesivir might be beneficial, and states are opening up, and the Dow is up 500 pts. Feels too far, too fast. Reopening will be slow, unemployment will remain high. Closing was an event. Reopening is a process.

I drove by Cracker Barrel last night... It was open, but had few cars in the parking lot. Once again, Boomers will determine economic growth. If older, wealthier Americans choose to avoid restaurants and crowded public places for months, the reopening will happen very slowly.

20m jobs lost thru the middle of Apr, another 10m after that... and yet stocks on fire. Buyers will be sorely disappointed with the pace of recovery.

#Tesla made $101 million selling #Bitcoin, $518 million selling emission credits, and lost $181 million selling cars. Not sustainable as GM and others bring EVs to market.

Apparently Biden's new plan doesn't remove cap on SALT deductions, leaving taxpayers in high-tax venues on the hook. Homes in Texas and Florida are going to get more expensive as more people move in...

If you think the labor market is tight today, just wait until we're nationally funding caregivers, daycare, etc. The pricing power pendulum at work will swing wide to employees. #TheGreatResignation

Under #BuildBackBetter , Chevy Bolt is only EV that qualifies for full $12,500 tax credit. Do you have to buy them new, or can you buy them after they catch on fire?

So Powell stays. Seems the markets were hoping for Brainard. Not sure it matters, as Fed governors, including Chair Powell, are focusing on almost anything BUT monetary policy lately.

Putin took down markets before Powell could. Now what does Fed do in March? The odds of a more dovish message just increased dramatically

That cracking sound is the 10-year trying to break through 3%.