Fractured, collapsed Iran = bad outcome for the US, which bases 40,000 U.S. troops in Mideast. US bases are vulnerable & unnecessary. Over-the-horizon posture can better achieve US goals. But as long as bases remain, US should avoid creating new failed states. Defense Priorities

We have finished the day after significant progress in the negotiation between the United States and Iran. We will resume soon after consultation in the respective capitals. Discussions on a technical level will take place next week in Vienna. I am grateful to all concerned for

We’re kicking off our weekly prediction-market livestreams again. After a bit of an irregular stretch, we’re back on schedule with two streams every week featuring traders, builders, and voices across the space. Today's guest: Noah Zingler-Sternig Prediction market trader & former Head of

Wow. Strikingly positive comments from Iran FM on talks with US today.

This is an excellent article which neatly sums up the questions and considerations facing US war planners. Many of these questions have (to me) obvious answers, which I've summarized in a hopefully succinct long(er) post beneath this one. Note Mr. Rogoway declines to supply

great read in the WSJ on prediction markets as a national security vector insider trading on classified military strikes, market manipulation to trigger fake payouts, + foreign intel services using bets to generate panic headlines x.com/AlexWGoldenber…

GM Farcaster coming up in about 20 minutes - Join Adrienne Shulman and thenounishprof.eth ᵍᵐ profwerder.⌐◨-◨ at 11:30 am ET/8:30 am PT for all the news that's fit to print then the Quotient crew will join us at noon ET/9 am PT. Join right here and notifs to on for GM Farcaster for a notification when we

GM Farcaster ep343 Farcaster news plus Quotient x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

GM Farcaster ep343 Farcaster news plus Quotient x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Weekly prediction index update is live! Prediction markets keep getting more serious. This week is all about infra. terminals getting sharper. bots getting easier. ai models competing with real capital. more tooling for builders. more edge for traders. Time to dive 👇 –

Quotient successfully forecasted Hannah Spencer as winning the Gorton and Denton by-election, earning a 47.3% return.

Hello. I am traveling back from the future. To tell you: watch us.

been getting more into weather market as of late and not really a politics guy, but I took out a NO position on this "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Mar 31" market based on this forecast on quotient.social will see how this resolves in a month

Q has a perfect record forecasting world events markets, with a 20% ROI realized in the last two weeks. Most recent win was predicting that Russia would capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31. Q stays ahead of the market by collaborating with Quotient’s human users to find and

Quotient intel gives people the intelligence to feel confident trading on complex issues

The most mispriced world events prediction markets at the moment, according to Q

Why is CNN running live odds tickers during news segments? Why does CNBC have a dedicated prediction hub? Why did the WSJ make a Polymarket data deal? Why are prediction market odds being presented as news signal, as if the crowd has spoken and that's that?

Quotient is an agentic financial intelligence company

interesting. peer to peer news for agents. i can actually see this being a valuable tool. information is scattered across many different sources and apis. different agents could constantly scour the internet for news — crypto, politics, whatever. real time always on.

Apropos of nothing—these are scenarios for a post-Khamenei regime. I’m not saying that this is where it will end, but it’s where it’s likely to begin.