Really excellent & informative discussion w/ Austin Long, Vipin Narang and Pranay Vaddi of virtually all the major nuclear policy issues facing US-- important context for upcoming Trump National Defense Strategy.

Key point. Israeli interceptor exhaustion was not going to force Israel to stop the war - it would have done the opposite. Reminder that Netanyahu had to turn planes around at Trump's insistence!

Beyond issues with interceptors quantity, "U.S. ships had to head to port in the Mediterranean or the Red Sea after shooting all of their interceptors, because the Navy doesn’t yet have a reliable way to reload at sea." Significant implications here for conflict in Indo-Pacific:

Hard to deter if you can't get to the fight: "If Nato’s tanks were called to respond to an invasion by Moscow’s forces across the EU’s eastern border, they would get stuck in tunnels, cause bridges to collapse and get snarled up in border protocols" ft.com/content/d77d4c…

A lot of people hate the Republicans because they are evil. A lot of those very same people hate the Democrats because the Democrats have been so ineffective in fighting evil.

"The hour-long fight, which took place in darkness, involved some 110 aircraft, making it the world's largest air battle in decades.... Faulty intelligence gave the [Indian] Rafale pilots a false sense of confidence they were out of Pakistani firing distance."

The Bike Will Always Get Through? Vivid example of how drones both constrict and create opportunities for movement on the battlefield. twz.com/news-features/…

Of course, if you believe that Russia violated INF Treaty through the development and deployment of the 9M729 GLCM--which I do--then it hasn't considered itself bound by restrictions on INF-type missiles, self-imposed or otherwise, for some time.

The likely costs of an Israeli full occupation or annexation of Gaza so vastly exceed the benefits that the only possible explanation is Netanyahu’s desire to preserve his coalition. That would also explain why government pursues it even as so many former IDF and Mossad leaders

My latest piece in صور طازجة, after spending the week in Taiwan. Many in Taiwan are nervous about a sellout, but there are things they can do to make themselves more secure and maintain U.S. support. foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/21/tru…

Excellent analysis here of what this summer's spectacular Israeli and Ukrainian drone attacks do-- and don't-- mean for U.S. Michael Poznansky Erik Sand

I published a new War on the Rocks article today, arguing that Europe’s denial-based missile defense strategy is bound to fail. Instead, I contend that Europe must adopt a punishment-based counterstrike strategy. Link: warontherocks.com/2025/09/denial… Summary below. 1/6

Siri, tell me what an extremely insecure man sounds like nytimes.com/2025/09/30/us/…

Kurt Campbell spot on here in noting that China not only lacks interest in escalation management but actually sees benefits in making the US worry about escalation dangers. That's a feature, not a bug, of Chinese approach (or lack thereof) to arms control. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

The Security Studies Program at MIT is accepting applications for the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellows Program. We are looking for the next generation of thought leaders in nuclear security by supporting research that will advance policy-relevant understanding of the subject.

Delighted to have joined the Strategic Simplicity podcast to continue the discussion of China's nuclear forces