Johns Hopkins University #Geoeconomics Conf - Call For Papers 👇 Key Dates and Highlights -Submissions by 01/07/25 -Conference on May 2-3, 2025 -Keynote Matteo Maggiori -Policy panel with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas -Lightning-round session for PhDs -More details here: ssrn.com/index.cfm/en/j…

"The past is never dead. It's not even past." William Faulkner.

An incredible data collection and curation effort

How to understand exchange rate dynamics in today's world? Excited to share our short NBER Reporter article with Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig, which offers a valuation framework for exchange rates. nber.org/reporter/2024n…

NBER IFM Spring Meetings Agenda is out (March 28 2025): nber.org/conferences/in… Livestream on Youtube here: youtube.com/nbervideos Please share with grad students and colleagues.

China's rising presence in international finance, which has long lagged behind its prominence in trade, now interacts with US monetary policy to reshape global financial dynamics, from Zhengyang Jiang nber.org/papers/w33519

Thrilled to see my paper on China's overseas lending featured on NBER homepage! Paper: nber.org/papers/w33519 Currently working on comparing the effects of China's lending to other major lenders like World Bank, IMF, the Paris Club.

Happy to see this paper forthcoming at the JFE! We argue that the persistent increase in dollar strength is driven by global saving and foreign asset demand, less so by interest rate policy alone. Alas, perhaps all of this will have to be revised by what just happened in market.

Very excited about this new paper. Using LLMs to analyze at scale and in near real time how firms are reacting to tariffs, export controls, and sanctions. We’ll update this frequently. Early draft, but if you want a sneak preview i’ll talk about this at 4:30pm PT today during

This time is different!

Look forward to the IMIM online seminar tomorrow! I'll be talking about monetary-fiscal coordination with international hegemon. sites.google.com/view/imimsemin…

Long-term Treasury convenience yields are more sensitive to changes in Treasury supply than short-term Treasury convenience yields, from Zhengyang Jiang, Rob Richmond, and Tony Zhang nber.org/papers/w33940

Tariff revenue vs federal deficit

Recently accepted by #QJE, “Investor Memory and Biased Beliefs: Evidence from the Field,” by Jiang (Zhengyang Jiang), Liu, Peng (Cameron Peng), and Yan: doi.org/10.1093/qje/qj…

Underlying the "whatever-it-takes", monetary guarantee lies a cross-country, fiscal transfer from Eurozone core to periphery. New paper with YiLi Chien, Matteo Leombroni and Hanno Lustig.

In a monetary union, risk-free rates cannot adjust to country-level fiscal positions, leaving credit spreads and convenience yields to respond. The latter is empirically important, from Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Xiaolan nber.org/papers/w34307

Via income pooling and below-market rate cross-border lending, the European Central Bank's unconventional policies created large, persistent transfers from Eurozone core to periphery countries, from Yi-Li Chien, Zhengyang Jiang, Matteo Leombroni, and Hanno Lustig

1/In the Eurozone, unconventional monetary policy leads to large cross-border fiscal transfers because it allows the periphery to borrow from the core at belo-market rates. We quantify these transfers.