Tel Aviv finally joined the global market rout today, so panic is spreading far and wide. Yet supposed gurus and experts here claim that economy -- not just here, even in US! -- is fine!! I will try and counter this complacent drivel as best I can!!

הקריסה העולמית הגיעה סוף-סוף לתל אביב וגרמה למדיה הישראלית המטומטמת להתייחס לנושא...אבל כאשר מומחים דגולים טוענים שהכל בסדר במשק -- לא רק כאן אלא גם בארה"ב -- אין מנוס אלא להתמודד איתם ועם טענותיהן ההזויות והשקריות...

לכן אני מודיע לכל מי שמעוניין שאני מוכן ורוצה להתעמת ישירות עם יעקב שיינין, או צבי סטפק, או כל אחד מהאנשים הריציניים הטוענים שהמצב בסדר ושהכל יעבור בשלום. אנחנו בראשיתו של משבר שיאפיל על 2008,

והכי חשוב -- כל אחד יכול להציל את רוב כספו, בקלות ובלי חכמה מרובה. צריך רק להשתחרר מכבלי הממסד ומסריהם השקריים ולפעול באופן עצמאי. אסביר איך במאמרים, לא בציוצים.

Israeli elections set for April 9. Yesterday, no-one saw this coming -- but here we are. This is good for the country -- the shorter the period util the elections, the better.

The proximate cause for the elections now wax -- as is almost always the case in Israel -- religious politics, i.e. a crisis involving the religious parties. The underlying cause is that as the official election date neared, the coalition glue crumbled.

My current assessment: no indictments prior to polling day; Netanyahu/Likud emerge as largest party, but weak victory; Netanyahu falls in second half of 2019, whether or not he succeeds in forming coalition.

The action on the US stock market is straight from the text-book of how major bear markets develop -- sharp falls punctuated by even sharper counter-trend rallies. Shades of late 2008 -- but unlike then, we are in the early stages of the bear.

For an excellent non-specialist perspective on the dynamics of bear markets, crashes, etc., see this from Forbes: forbes.com/sites/brettste…

Israeli Politics: the move by Bennett and Shaked -- split from JH and formation of "New Right" -- is a key part of the coming restructuring of the Israeli political map. Everyone is moving into position for the post-Netanyahu era, which now beckons.

The year opened with a flood of poor economic data -- hard and soft -- from around the world, especially that from China . But it's China's real estate market that demands constant attention-- see this for why zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-0…

When I have expressed scepticism about WeWork, especially to real-estate people, not just to techies, the response has been "what the hell do you know?". But at looks like this bubble of hot air's time has also come. See zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-0… and follow the links in the item.

I just published The country where the centre CAN, and will, hold link.medium.com/LUF0Rj100T , This is a very different view of israeli elections and politics than you will get in either Israeli or foreign MSM

Here’s a quote from the Bulletin I sent to my subscribers on April 9, 2019 – election day, while the the vote underway. What to expect:

a)No-one knows. b)Surprises, in terms of results of individual parties. c)Although Likud have a better chance of forming a government, there is a growing probability that neither big party will be able to construct a coalition with an agreed agenda. However,

However, it could take many weeks, maybe months, of wrangling to reach that conclusion. TACTICAL BOTTOM LINE: This election should be seen as the first of a two-leg contest. Likud are at home while Blue & White are playing away, so for Likud it’s not enough to scrape through,

they need to win comfortably, i.e. form a coalition with well over 60 MKs. B&W only need to show they can play well; they can afford to lose this game by a small margin, and hope that Netanyahu will be red-carded or otherwise unavailable for the second leg.

That would leave B&W very well placed to achieve a decisive victory overall -- but remember, their new line-up is untested and needs to prove it can play together effectively, otherwise one of their stars may quit or be dropped for the second leg.

This is what's important as regards Trump's future, not the impeachment theatre. zerohedge.com/political/trum…

IMHO, seen from the perspective of the Jewish people, the elimination of Qassem Suleimani was the most important such operation since the assassination of Reinhard Heydrich, the architect of the Final Solution, by the SOE (the forerunner of the CIA) in June 1942.