He's right you know. One of the reasons aid for Ukraine has been so limited in type and use is that there is a real fear of Russian collapse. Its perverse, but true.

Signs, perhaps, that more artillery ammo might be reaching Ukrainian forces at the front

Really interesting. For all the doom and gloom about Ukraine, Russia is losing up its equipment at historic rates.

Must be going well for Russia….

Sent this out yesterday, Ukraine is continuing to wage an interesting ranged/strategic air campaign. Though you might have missed it in the constant doom and gloom reporting

Glide bombs on Kharkiv. Again and again. What is Europe doing?

In some ways what language US policy makers use publicly doesn’t matter. It’s clear the US prohibition on attacks into Russia with US equipment stands. How do we know this? The Ukrainians aren’t using them now. They could have helped Ukraine a great deal with blunting the Kharkiv

yep

Alex Younger on BBC Radio 4 Today says that the War in Ukraine is “NOW about production”.
This is our problem laid bare, because winning the war always was about production, and we have squandered two years.
Sir Alex Younger

Massive overnight Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s Novorossiysk port and the northern Caucasus, as well we Sevastopol in Crimea. Russian officials say, as usual, that all the drones were shot down. Footage below from the successful defense of the Tuapse refinery, Rosneft’s

There has been a large air and naval kamikaze drone attack on the main naval base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Novorossiysk by Ukraine 🇺🇦

At least 35 explosions have been heard. Damage has been confirmed, and more information about the attack on the port is being clarified

Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast do not have enough numbers to make a 'strategic breakthrough' of Ukrainian defenses there, said General Christopher Cavoli, NATO's top commander in Europe, at a press conference on May 16.

kyivindependent.com/nato-top-comma…

Aftermath of the 2 Ukrainian strikes on Belbek airfield over 2 consecutive nights, as seen in a HR satellite image by Planet from May 16. At least several MiG-31s appear to be destroyed + a fuel depot (according to Wikimapia). Another scorch mark is visible at 44.6857, 33.5590.

Really enjoy reading Phillips newsletter

This is interesting and compelling analysis…a counter to the “doomers” who keep predicting or hoping for Ukraine to fail.

Russia had all the advantages for ten years…and here we are. Imagine if the West decides to actually try to help Ukraine win this War.