Great piece by Rose McDermott, Reid Pauly and Paul Slovic: "[P]eople generally struggle to weigh conflicting risks and benefits—including those involving nuclear weapons. Faced with complexity, we simplify, narrowing our focus until a clear choice emerges."foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/putin-…

Totally agree. Highly contingent moments in history make our future seem almost fickle. Question: Does this imply greater agency or greater vulnerability to randomness?

I think I'm going to enjoy Chuck Wendig's book on writing...

It's good to see the The Andrew W. Marshall Foundation using foresight to tackle a subject that is too often taboo in DC. andrewwmarshallfoundation.org/experiments/ch…

when you think about it, if you are NOT admitting you have something to learn, it cant be the case that you know everything... so it might simply be a case of low-awareness... #BeADon'tKnower to build psychological safety and strong relationships

When wildly different people express similar views, it's worth sitting up and taking notice. Case in point: Jocko Willink: "Discipline equals freedom" and... Gustave Flaubert: "Be regular and orderly in your life, so that you may be violent and original in your work."

A really nice example of the potential of qual-quant synthesis and the need for more of what I call "statistically savvy storytellers." Metaculus

I cannot echo this strongly enough. Amy Edmondson's work on psychological safety is one of the most important concepts I've ever encountered--it changed the way I look at leaders, teams, and organizations--and her new book on learning from failure is simply spectacular.

What a wonderful post by Richard Fisher and Xander Balwit on the best places to experience "deep time." longviewer.substack.com/p/where-are-th…

What a wonderful concept. And a wonderful piece.

A wonderful/terrible example of vague verbiage. Any guesses as to what probability Powell actually has in mind? (cc: Philip E. Tetlock Michael Mauboussin)

This is an immensely depressing move from an institution dedicated to exploration and explanation of the natural and cultural worlds, at the very moment when we need more of both. washingtonpost.com/media/2023/06/…

Are you interested in shaping the future of biosecurity? The 2023 Next Generation for Biosecurity Competition is searching for creative policy proposals that promote biosecurity in emerging bioeconomies. Join the competition and be part of the solution! bit.ly/3CPv8v4

A nice piece from @arthurb making the case for humility. Information is not knowledge, let alone wisdom. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

Colossal team effort, led by Ezra Karger, to run the first Hybrid Persuasion-Forecasting Tournament: forecastingresearch.org/s/XPT.pdf Many follow-up questions but a big one is: why was it so hard for AI experts to persuade superforecasters to move their skeptical priors on long-run AI

Sometimes headlines do not refer to the thing you think they're referring to... wwd.com/accessories-ne…

The Powerful Lesson of Second Place | Opinion trib.al/ZtMV3HK

I may be biased since Carl has supported my work, but I thought this interview with Making Sense Podcast was great. It's hard to talk about everything from Los Alamos to Ukraine and actually say anything valuable-but he did. I strongly recommend a listen.

“we are finite, limited creatures living in a world of constraints and stubborn reality.” theatlantic.com/family/archive…

The U.S. is facing a “new nuclear age.” How might we think differently about nuclear weapons to better prepare for tomorrow? In a new report, NewAmericaISP's @peterscoblic explores and challenges expectations of future nuclear dangers. 🔗 bit.ly/3QyHaiU