NY Fed survey shows 1y inflation expectations up to 3.2%, but 3y & 5y horizons anchored. Stable long-term expectations gave Powell room to pivot at JH. Labor perceptions are the weakest since 2013, pointing to rising precautionary savings and softer spending ahead.

Which way do you think construction employment is going to go?

After briefly bouncing back in May, soft-data labor market indicators have fallen back into recessionary territory.

The labor differential in yesterday's NY Fed Survey of consumer expectations showed a further deterioration in labor market conditions. The deterioration was largely driven by a sharp decrease in the probability of finding a job.

That’s a bigly decline

There is something alluring to me about #palladium. Maybe it is that the #gold and #silver rush that everyone is focused on, has left this beautiful underdog undervalued. Why undervalued - demand/supply fundamentals are very compelling.

Larry Ellison is now the world’s richest man. He’s 81. Would you rather be?

That would be ironic #meta

Big pop in initial unemployment claims. This looks partly like a seasonal adjustment issue to me, coinciding with the Labor Day weekend. Non-seasonally adjusted claims were up only 8K.

Okay, here’s the twist: I think the correct answer is “81 and super rich”. The reason is that the moment when you were 18 and poor isn't going anywhere. It will always be part of your world line, forever etched in spacetime, regardless of how old you are now, just like every

The New York Fed’s manufacturing survey is very noisy on a month-to-month basis. Nevertheless, the 20-point drop in September was noteworthy, especially given that the stock market is at a record high.

The Chicago Fed’s estimate of tomorrow’s retail sales report based on big data suggests tepid growth in real sales ex autos of 0.1% in August.

The AI slop is getting much worse on X. A few months ago it was mainly bot ads. Now it’s increasingly AI generated responses. These are a lot more toxic because you end up wasting time reading them before you realize that it’s not a real person.

Great news for insider trading

Strong retail sales report today, although probably somewhat distorted by the end of the de minimis tariff exemption on August 29 and higher overall inflation. The key question going forward is whether sales can hold up on the back of slower real income growth. I am skeptical.

The left led the charge on cancel culture for a long time and now that they are on the receiving end, it doesn’t feel so great. The lesson is that regardless of who is in power, free speech should be defended. Therefore, I recommend putting both Jimmy and Tucker back on the air.

Aggregate hours worked in the US private sector is down over the past three months. Productivity surge or a looming recession?

Job openings have relapsed in September after staging a tentative rebound between mid-July and the end of August.

I think investors underestimate how difficult it is to prevent decoherence in quantum computers. You’re basically fighting entropy every step of the way.