I often work with young researchers who don't convert R&Rs to publications. I definitely don’t do everything well! But I put a lot of effort into this and have a 24/24 conversion rate. So I am passing along six tips based upon my experience as an author and editor. #Econtwitter

Is AI on track to match top human forecasters at predicting the future? Today, FRI is releasing an update to ForecastBench—our benchmark that tracks how accurate LLMs are at forecasting real-world events. A trend extrapolation of our results suggests LLMs will reach

These results suggest that getting a PhD causally worsens mental health, or at least receiving psychiatric medicines. The reversal post PhD degree is particularly convincing. But the up trend among the control group is intriguing. The highly educated are in distress.

Submit your model to our LLM forecasting benchmark, ForecastBench! 📅 The next submission deadline is November 9 🤖 Test your model against leading AI labs, human baselines and individual competitors 👇See next post for how to submit

Today, we are launching the most rigorous ongoing source of expert forecasts on the future of AI: the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP). We’ve assembled a panel of 339 top experts across computer science, AI industry, economics, and AI policy. Roughly every month—for the next

Will wisdom of elite forecasting crowd on LEAP out-perform famous AI accelerationists & skeptics? First-wave results: LEAP experts are consistently less bullish on AI progress than tech CEOs, like Altman, but more bullish than educated public

Novartis' new malaria treatment cured 97.4% of patients – more than the current best treatment It kills resistant parasites, too, and probably blocks transmission better than current drugs Approval is expected next year!

Hiring a Chief of Staff for the Open Phil's AI governance team has made a world of difference to how much we can get done. If you want to help us move faster on AI and other priorities, apply for one of these roles! openphilanthropy.org/careers/senior…

Trump's disapproval rating (55.9%) now exceeds the figure from a comparable point in his first term (54.9%).

Time to retire the "low hire-low fire" description of the labor market. It's "low hire." That's a problem even without layoffs spiking.

In Bloomberg today, FRI Chief Scientist, Philip E. Tetlock argues that the debate over AI progress needs falsifiable forecasts rather than broad statements: "The debate over the future of AI deserves fewer overconfident proclamations and more precise, policy-relevant predictions.

Forecasting Research Institute is dedicated to improving signal-to-noise ratios in heated debates. LEAP, Longitudinal Expert AI Panel, elicits testable forecasts of AI progress each month. First-wave results will frustrate extremists at both ends of opinion spectrum but if you love nuance...

Can we predict the past? 🔮 New open-access paper in American Historical Review proposes 'Retrodiction'—using gaps in the archival record to test historical theories. Interdisciplinary collab feat. David Gill, Marc Trachtenberg, Philip E. Tetlock Cendri Hutcherson, and more 🧵👇

There’s a paradox around remote work. Jamie Dimon says it will kill productivity, while startups are hiring for remote roles. Who is right? With Abhinav Gupta and Elena Simintzi we try to resolve this dispute Paper: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Substack: arpitrage.substack.com/p/remote-works…

added polymarket data to the public dataset. 400m+ trades going back to 2020. 36gb compressed. MIT licensed, free to download via Cloudflare R2.

Ask ChatGPT a complex question and you'll get a confident, well-reasoned answer. Then type, "Are you sure?" Watch it completely reverse its position. Ask again. It flips back. By the third round, it usually acknowledges you're testing it, which is somehow worse. It knows what's