I was curious about/skeptical about the relationship between global temperature fluctuations and subsequent global GDP evolution, as discussed in the NBER working paper by Adrien Bilal and Diego Känzig.

nber.org/papers/w32450

In particular,

“A 1°C increase in global temperature

The insurance and financial industries have long relied on models to help analysts make decisions about what to invest in, how much to insure, and more. What happens when inaccurate climate models start influencing those decisions?

Read Jessica Weinkle:
thebreakthroughjournal.substack.com/p/performing-c…

🌍🌐 Have a look at this km-scale simulation of surface temperature from the #DestinationEarth #ClimateChange Adaptation Digital Twin!

Read the full article about the development and objectives of this new system here ➡️ destine.ecmwf.int/news/the-fast-…

This methodology cannot actually do what it claims to do - quantify the economic impact of greenhouse gas-induced climate change.

It essentially estimates the economic impact of an El Niño, which grows to an El Niño 15 times larger than a typical El Niño by the end of the

Global life expectancy: 1800 vs 1950 vs 2015

[🗺️ Max Roser / Our World in Data]

It's amazing to me how narratives now rule what passes off for climate 'science', especially in the media. Not only does a simple and obvious fact like the one below -- from the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report in 2021 -- not get reported, but the opposite does!

Two common claims about changes in extreme temperatures are that, at any given location:

1) Extreme heat is warming much faster than the annual average temperature.

2) Extreme cold is getting colder.

In general, the opposite is true...

1) The most extreme hot temperatures

Problem solving is an underappreciated human desire. It's how we grow, personally and as a species. It's why we play, it's why we do science. And it's why people who have no problems invent some.

When flooding occurs, media outlets and activists often point to climate change as the culprit. Climate change will likely alter flood patterns and risk, but the relationship is more complicated than is often let on.

Patrick T. Brown in @thebti journal: thebreakthroughjournal.substack.com/p/are-floods-d…

youtu.be/6YmYwp6GslM?t=…

It is very important to take publication bias seriously when evaluating the scientific literature on any topic.

'Scientists have other incentives than finding out the truth. They want to get tenure; they want to feed their children. And scientific

Good primer by Patrick T. Brown on how climate change will influence flooding hazards. Globally, the protected change in inland river flooding is more of a mixed bag than you might expect due to phenomena that counteract the impact of heavy rain.

thebreakthroughjournal.substack.com/p/are-floods-d…

Interested in making a difference by researching clean cars, clean energy, or climate risk? Know somebody who's looking? My team is hiring! Please do circulate these exciting opportunities far and wide across your networks.
thebreakthrough.org/about/jobs

“(Bayes’ Theorem) makes a lot of people uncomfortable because it makes (science) subjective and squishy. People want science to be rigidly objective like ‘these numbers tell us these things’ but in the end it can’t be. There’s always going to be personal judgment and there’s an