Every week since Sunak became PM it’s felt like The Narrowing is finally about to happen, then you check a polling average and they’re a point lower than the week before

Highly likely this election will see the most tactical voting since 1997/2001 when the Libs and Labour were last this aligned and the Tories were last as unpopular as now.

A well-deserved award for an incredible data journalist!!

US politics is an outlier, and should not be seen as representative of the rich world.

Between 2006 and 2023, trust in national institutions increased in all of the G7 except the US, where it fell substantially.

These are two very different poll results for the West Midlands Mayor contest.

Of course both are taken some way out from polling day which will give whoever is most wrong a bit of cover, but looks like one or other will see their reputation take a bit of a knock.

For balance, most likely Lib Dem gains:

1. Cheltenham
2. Guildford
3. Esher and Walton
4. St Ives
5. Winchester
6. Wimbledon
7. South Cambridgeshire
8. Lewes
9. Carshalton and Wallington
10. Cheadle

Good thread. I agree with the benchmarks - Reform should be hitting at least high teens, probably mid 20s in Blackpool S or Qs need to be asked about their capacity to realise the support shown in polls (either because they can’t organise or because polls are overstating them)

Presidential voting intention:

Biden: 44% (+2 vs 6-9th April)
Trump: 44% (+1)

The Economist/YouGov, 14-16th April

Really interesting non-MRP approach. As Owen says, doesn't account for tactical voting. One reason why the cataclysm some methods are currently predicting for the Tories becomes merely a severe catastrophe in this model. But still - bye-bye JRM, for example.

Massive opportunity for any recent grads out there with an interest in politics and data - you'll be learning from the best in the business at such an exciting time for LT and for Labour. Get in touch 📩

Labour has a 40% chance of winning between 350 and 399 seats, our new model for Britain’s general election concludes, and a 27% chance of winning more than 400 seats, as Sir Tony Blair did in 1997 econ.st/3UjzYcr 🗳️

Under-appreciated point about this:

The map here is a good halfway point between the standard constituency map (which makes it hard to see cities properly) and those awful hex maps that put Croydon next to Worthing

The Bristol Civic Society are a group of NIMBYs opposed to any development in Bristol. When a proposal is not tall, they object citing the housing crisis. When a proposal is tall, it's carbon emissions. A 🧵of their insane objections.