$SPX options are pricing just a bit more than 3% move over the next 30 days. That's about inline with 6100 to the upside and 5700 to the downside. That also happens to be roughly in line with the highs and lows of the past 3 months:

$QQQ and $IWM showing slightly less chill into January at about 4.5% and 5% expected moves respectively. All of this is a bit tougher to gauge in this thin trading this week. We may see some off moves the next few days but next week may be a bit more of a clue as to whether

The TL:DR of all of this is we went from a period into the election (especially Sept/Oct) where options were consistently overpriced vs the day to day moves indices were realizing (an ideal set-up for option sellers). Into year end that switched to a backdrop of lower options

Joining PMP in a few to talk expiration, $NVDA and more youtube.com/live/kGc6hMhCp… Dennis Dick, CFA Joel Elconin

In times of high implied vol in options it's difficult to find anything dollar cheap (long premium) for directional positioning. But there are some cheeky things like slightly out of the money, but very tight width spreads. Usually 35c/40c on dollar wides, and essentially binary

A game of chicken at this $SPX 5565 strike. Those short the strike (March 31st) will have hedged about half the risk and were important in adding to yesterday's selling. A mild bounce here and they're not adding much to the rally, a large bounce and they do. A break below and

$SPX moves are being heavily affected by this large expiry tomorrow. Especially with the compression in implied vol ( $VIX 30 to 20 ). The range vs strikes is fairly obvious over the past week. The effect increases into tomorrow then changes a bit on Monday:

Really interesting dynamic unfolding here. Vol changed hands quite a bit yesterday—we saw corporate hedgers monetizing protection while short vol programs added to existing positions. That activity helped keep a lid on the vol as the market slid lower. It also explains why

Joining the stocktradernetwork.com in a few. Anything going on in the markets? Joel Elconin Dennis Dick, CFA Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸

Good discussion on whether we're near a bounce. How low we could go ultimately. How to trade when $VIX is 40, and bid/asks are criminally wide. We even got into some stock repair strategies! Joel Elconin

Good take by Kris. My take similar. We’re nearing or already at “peak tariff headlines” but there’s a lot more twists to come outside the headlines and vol will stay elevated even on face ripping bounces.

You know that scene in the Simpsons is where the doctor tells Mr Burns that all the diseases in his body are perfectly balanced? Like the 3 Stooges stuck in a door? I feel like that’s what’s going on in treasuries. $TLT

To give you some sense of how high short duration implied vols are, $SPX options are pricing a near 6% move for the rest of the week at 70+ IV. Out to the end of 2025 SPX options are pricing about a 16% move. (to the upside that's essentially where we were a week an a half ago