3 things to understand about Iran's retaliatory strike on Israel 🧵

1) Paradoxically, the strike was extremely significant (demonstrating Iran's boldness & capacity for deterrence), but also deliberately designed to minimize casualties to try to avoid an all-out war.

After Israel struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus, it threatened that any response launched from Iranian territory would be met with a response on Iranian territory. This threat was intended to bully Iran into capitulating, but it had the opposite effect.

Iran felt forced to respond from its own territory to demonstrate that it is not intimidated by Israel's threats, & did it via a cautious yet large & multifaceted attack to showcase (as a 'sample' if you will) what it is capable of should Israel want a major confrontation.

There is also speculation that the diversity of Iran's strike was intended to activate all of Israel's defenses so Iran could get deeper insight into these capabilities & figure out how to overcome them should a major war break out.

Nonetheless, Iran really wants to avoid a major regional war (it doesn't want to risk a confrontation with the US), which is why they seem to have deliberately avoided targeting any sites that would cause mass casualties.

2) Israel is now in a bind: The US (like Iran) also signalled it doesn't want a regional war (though some in Congress seem to want one), so now it's up to Israel to decide how far they want to take this confrontation, knowing it will be extremely costly to everyone.

For now, though, Netanyahu's gamble that the consulate strike would either lead to total Iranian capitulating, or an Iranian overreaction that would lead the US to strike Iran (Bibi's dream scenario) appears to have failed. But the situation remains very dangerous & precarious!

3) All of this is happening not just against the backdrop of Israel's genocidal war on Gaza, but BECAUSE of Israel's genocidal war on Gaza. Unconditional US backing for Israel's onslaught is bringing the region to the brink, & we urgently need to put an end to it.