The field of #EP2024 seat projections is getting more crowded, with EUobserver joining the fray:

euobserver.com/eu-elections/a…

I particuarly like this graph on group composition, which easily highlights the big national groups - with the French far-right RN possibly the largest.

A first guestimate at 2024 fossil CO2 emissions growth: +0.5%.

This is based on IEA coal & gas reports, & the US EIA STEO (for oil).

The coal projection is likely the most shaky. Weak growth in oil, strong growth in gas.

Learn more on Thursday: cicero.oslo.no/no/arrangement…

Wie steht es kurz vor den Europawahlen um die EU- Klimapolitik? Mein Beitrag zur SWP Berlin-Sammelstudie 'Stand der Integration' gibt einen Überblick über interne Konfliktlinien, neue Krisen & internationale Erwartungen.
➡️swp-berlin.org/publikation/eu…
Hrsg: Raphael Bossong/Nicolai von Ondarza

The government coalition in the German Bundestag backs the mechanism to set targets for 'technical sinks' for 2035, 2040, and 2045 in the Climate Law.
What's new compared to the BMWK proposal?
- Emphasis on LULUCF-based removals (in §3a/b)
- Provision for parliamentary approval

During the Scoping Meeting for the Special Report on #ClimateChange and Cities, #IPCC Bureau Members briefed Latvian Parliament members about critical #IPCC findings on #climatechange , including impacts, risks, adaptation, and mitigation options.

Do UN Climate Change #COP meetings affect oil and renewables stock prices? Short answer is: no!

Come and check out our Robin Lamboll poster at #EGU2024

Important piece on generating research useful to policymakers. What was useful to us in the White House on climate & energy econ & policy was cogent open access peer-reviewed research in high-quality journals w/quantified ranges of monetized impacts & emissions, w/ good titles.

Gestern erschien der neue #ESYS -Impuls zum Thema #Kohlenstoffmanagement . Er behandelt Fragen wie: Wie wichtig ist Kohlenstoffmanagement im Vergleich zur Treibhausgas-Vermeidung, um später Netto-negativ-Emissionen zu erreichen? Thread 1/9 👇Oliver Geden Andreas Loeschel

The Scoping Meeting to draft the outline for IPCC’s next report, a Special Report on #ClimateChange and Cities, opened today in Riga, Latvia.

Kaspars Melnis , Jānis Lange, Emīlija Roberta Eglīte & IPCC Chair Jim Skea opened the meeting.

bit.ly/SMtgRg

This is just the latest example of using deadline rhetoric in the climate debate. You may remember the 'we have only 12 years' catchphrase following the release of IPCC SR15 in 2018. The problem is such rhetoric is both ineffective & self-defeating.

rdcu.be/dEsQ1

Erst recht, wenn man sich die Namen der offiziellen Autor/innen ansieht, darunter Edenhofer, Grimm, Haug, Schlögl & Schüth

Ongoing debate in New Zealand over its separate methane target. The new government isn't happy with the previous target and is to commission an independent review panel to investigate the statements of the independent Climate Change Commission.
rnz.co.nz/news/political…

The European Commission recently published its Communication on a 2040 climate target. It offers a glimpse into the political challenges that the German government will also have to face, write Felix Schenuit and Oliver Geden. SWP Europe swp-berlin.org/en/publication…

We now have three estimates of fossil CO2 emissions growth in 2023:
* 1.1% from GlobalCarbonProject in December 2023 essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/53…
* 1.1% from International Energy Agency in March 2024 iea.org/reports/co2-em…
* 0.1% from Carbon Monitor in Feb & April 2024 nature.com/articles/s4301…

Figure from GCB

Out now: 'The Next Phase of European Climate Policy: Laying the Groundwork with the 2040 Target'.
New SWP Berlin comment with Oliver Geden on the Commission's 90% recommendation and next steps after the European elections.
▶️swp-berlin.org/en/publication… #EP2024 #EU2040

There has been a long term decline in SO2 emissions, potentially causing an acceleration in global warming.

Since 2020, ships have had stringent regulations on SO2 emissions, accelerating SO2 reductions.

But how much have SO2 emissions dropped since 2020?

1/

In a new piece over at Carbon Brief I compare observed warming (and its historic rate) to three different future projections:
1) The IPCC AR6 assessed warming (SSP2-4.5)
2) The full CMIP6 ensemble (SSP2-4.5)
3) Hansen et al 2023's projected acceleration.