O'Keefe Stevens Advisory (@osa_rochester) 's Twitter Profile
O'Keefe Stevens Advisory

@osa_rochester

Commentary on Markets, Stocks, Investing. Not financial advice.
Substack: shorturl.at/RmC4P
Disclosure: linktr.ee/osaroc

ID: 1520071985878949893

linkhttps://okeefestevens.com/ calendar_today29-04-2022 16:06:41

1,1K Tweet

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O'Keefe Stevens Advisory (@osa_rochester) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$BGC - Even on a shortened week, FMX SOFR Futures volumes put up very strong results (up week over week, even with 1 less day). Record OI to end the week.

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$BBBY- Will be curious to see how gross margins perform IF the company starts growing. The decremental margins in 2025 were HSD vs mid-20's GM. The decline in revenue had little flow-through. I suspect this relates to Lemonis's plan of rationalizing the product assortment,

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$WHR - Issuing $800m worth of stock & prefs - even though they spend $200m (post div cut) on common dividends. I think next up is a full cut of the dividend, the stock gets hammered when this happens, and then the true turnaround begins. One to keep an eye on.

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$SEG - Bear thesis was just destroyed with the new Balloon Museum lease taking over the Tin Building THIS SUMMER. Was wondering why we hadn't heard more news on this building, given this was management's focus - turns out they had projects in motion behind the scenes.

Rich Howe (@stockspinoffss) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Looking forward to presenting to the CFA Society of Rochester tomorrow. Hope to see you there! cfarochester.cfasocietyevents.org/event/6521fc84…

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You can buy a derisked $SEG for less than what Ackman paid for it 9 months ago. I guess this is what happens in underfollowed micro-cap land. Last night's announcement of closing the Tin Building and repurposing it as an entertainment venue, with a lease instead of having to

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$WHR - Tepper is 100% spot on. Why would they issue equity before cutting the dividend (unless that's around the corner and they are selling ahead of the funds that will be forced sellers)? The CEO is going to be canned soon - has created 0 value in nearly 2 decades. Stock is

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$DKNG - The consolidation of apps is the lowest hanging fruit and I think very powerful. Thought it was crazy my Sportsbook $ could not be used on predictions.

O'Keefe Stevens Advisory (@osa_rochester) 's Twitter Profile Photo

$SEG - $50m repurchase authorization. 90% pro forma leased when all new leases commence. Things move quickly when you have a dedicated team managing the properties. Expecting a nice move higher tomorrow. I have to assume the $50m is going to be used to repurchase Ackman's

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Want a first derivative way to play oil vol? $BGC - Largest revenue segment. This business should be firing on all cylinders. Also (I think) higher prices = larger notional contracts = bigger fees.

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$TCAP - Compare the results of TP Icap vs $BGC. 2025 TCAP- Energy & Commodities -2% y/y vs BGC ECS +21% organic. TCAP Electronic transactions over the last two years +7% annually vs Fenics +16% rev growth in 2025 (not exactly apples to apples but directionally good enough).

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Thoughts from my recent vacation on the Carnival Cruise. High-level takeaways that I thought about while on vacation. $CCL open.substack.com/pub/dominickda…

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$BGC - MONSTER QTR INCOMING! BGC expects to be slightly above the high end of its previously stated outlook ranges for revenue and pre-tax Adjusted Earnings for the first quarter of 2026. Their Q1 guide (IMO) was insane to begin with, now exceeding it???? Stock should be up 20%

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$BGC - Updated thoughts post the pre-announcement. Continue to think this is one of the better opportunities in the market. Uncorrelated + accelerating fundamentals. dominickdangelo.substack.com/p/bgc-group-ma…

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$BGC - Did something happen in March that caused an explosion in Interest Rate F&O activity? This chart is correct. ice.com/report/7

$BGC - Did something happen in March that caused an explosion in Interest Rate F&O activity? This chart is correct. ice.com/report/7
O'Keefe Stevens Advisory (@osa_rochester) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Will be curious if $CALY rallies on the news that LIV could be announcing its shuttering of the league today. Getting everyone back on the same tour should drive increased golfing interest and engagement, driving growth in the broader game of golf.