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my friend Nuño Sempere now in the US! attempts to snap a picture of me visiting the great american institution of walmart for the first time american friends told me this "wasn't even a big one" but I think it might have been bigger than like my entire hometown

In NYC until Thursday! Reach out!

x.com/i/article/1934…

Iran v. Israel going at it, protests in the US, and Sam Altman on the Gentle Singularity. Eventful week! PS: Polymarket's probability on Iran nuke seems way too high.

One of the Chinese carriers sailed inside Japan’s EEZ of Japan’s easternmost island, for the first time. This marked the first time that a Chinese aircraft carrier has sailed east of the so-called second island chain that includes Guam, where a US base is located.

People don't think that the only point of the intelligence community is the president's daily brief

I will be here! Join me!

.Just Curious did an interview!

we recorded a pod on US Iran strike possibilities this morning but since the vibe shifted so quickly, I decided against releasing to our list. If you are interested in top forecasters chatting for pedagogial reasons, however, it is useful for that! enjoy!

Two weeks ago I helped launch @Aerolamp, a far-UVC lamp that we hope will set a new standard for price, performance, and longevity. (Pictured: my very serious and professional demo at a local brewery) Here’s the backstory:

David Manheim (is stuck in Athens) Aryeh Kontorovich Just Curious I think in this case I think a) Belikewater's forecast is selected for extremeness and interestingness b) trust the aggregate more (which is lower), c) extremely glad to have her forecast as part of the aggregate; I can see how it makes our joint forecast stronger.

> If you need to specify things precisely enough to be amenable to benchmarking, you will necessarily miss the fact that the lack of precise specification is often what makes jobs messy and complex in the first place AI complements labor until it automates away the last 1%?

Kinda surprisingly quiet Iran front; Fordow not destroyed yet, US still deciding, Israel hasn't killed Khameini, etc.