“While about 1 in 10 voters say they wouldn’t vote on Prop 135 or 137, the large shares of voters who are still unsure how they will vote on each measure will determine whether or not these measures pass come November.” - Mike Noble hubs.ly/Q02NkzqK0

Prop 479 (formerly known as Prop 400) is a half-cent sales tax funding transportation projects in Maricopa County, up for renewal in November. For more than a year, Prop 479 has had majority support from Maricopa County voters and unchanged opposition. hubs.ly/Q02NxHM20

“Maricopa County voters have had their minds made up for a year on this proposition – campaigns for it have clearly worked, and Prop 479 is on the fast track to victory in November.” - Mike Noble Full report: hubs.ly/Q02NxDVD0

The Maricopa County Sheriff race is a dead heat with Tyler Kamp and Jerry Sheridan earning 35% support each. Sheridan has consolidated more of his base (76% of REPs) than Kamp (69% of DEMs), but Kamp has won over more INDs, 34% to Sheridan’s 22%. hubs.ly/Q02NxQJH0

In the Maricopa County Attorney race, Rachel Mitchell (R) holds a slim 2-point lead over Tamika Wooten (D), 37% to 35%. Wooten benefits from a 10-point lead among Independents as well as 8% support from REPs compared to Mitchell’s 3% support from DEMs. hubs.ly/Q02NxNFC0

In the Maricopa County Assessor’s race, Democrat Gregory Freeman leads Republican Eddie Cook by 3 points (36% to 33%). Although a significant 40% of Independents are unsure in this race, Freeman has the edge with a 15-point lead among Independents. hubs.ly/Q02NxQLv0

The Maricopa County Recorder race shows the widest gap of the local elections, but the race is still close. Tim Stringham (D) leads Justin Heap (R) by just 4 points (38% to 34%). Once again, INDs are breaking for the Democratic candidate 35% to 20%. hubs.ly/Q02NxQ-m0

“These races are incredibly close. In each one, the leading candidate is ahead by a low single-digit margin. With a high number of undecideds, this poll just doesn’t point to a clear winner. But historical data might tell us more.” - Mike Noble hubs.ly/Q02NxR200

In recent elections in Maricopa County, the more local the election, the more competitive for the GOP. DEMs currently have the advantage of marginal leads overall and larger leads among INDs. REPs, on the other hand, have the historical advantage. hubs.ly/Q02NxGJL0

“AZ is changing fast but the state’s DNA is still Republican. McCain Rs, business moderates – the type of voters who may not like Trump but have GOP loyalty & trust a local REP – have split their ticket in the past. They may do so again.” - Mike Noble hubs.ly/Q02NxFb90

Arizona’s largest county is at the heart of the state’s political climate. The current polling shows potential Democratic-leaning shifts, but with races as tight as these – and with such large shares of undecideds – it may still be too soon to tell. hubs.ly/Q02NxQRh0

“Will history repeat itself in Maricopa County’s local elections, or will we see a new political landscape come November?” - Mike Noble Full report: hubs.ly/Q02NxWcN0

“There’s so much within the margin of error, it’s hard to pinpoint the decisive factors between races like Assessor and Sheriff. Apart from Kari Lake’s race, these contests could all be in very similar positions.” - David Byler Full report: hubs.ly/Q02NxFbd0

Between January 2022 and today, a majority of Arizona voters have continued to believe the state is headed in the wrong direction. In August, 60% of voters said Arizona is going in the wrong direction and 40% said it’s on the right track. Full report: hubs.ly/Q02NVfw-0

Republicans are overwhelmingly pessimistic (77% "wrong direction") while Democrats are broadly optimistic (65% "right track"). Independents’ views on Arizona’s direction line up closest to the toplines with 64% unhappy with the trajectory of the state. hubs.ly/Q02NVqCj0

For most of the election season, inflation, immigration, and abortion have been the top issues. That’s still true – but a new issue, affordable housing, has officially cemented its status as a top-tier issue for Arizona voters. Full report: hubs.ly/Q02NVbTD0

REPs' top issues are immigration & inflation by a landslide. DEMs care most about abortion (50%), followed by a statistical tie with inflation (40%) & affordable housing (39%). INDs care about inflation, immigration, & affordable housing at similar levels. hubs.ly/Q02NVvxr0

“Immigration, abortion, inflation – when these issues come up, the parties know what they’re talking about. And voters know who they trust. Housing is a different animal. Housing costs are just too high, and it’s becoming a bipartisan concern." -David Byler hubs.ly/Q02NVsC20

When asked which political party would do a better job of running the state, Republicans (45%) hold a narrow edge over Democrats (42%). This slight edge largely stems from party loyalty, split Independents, and marginally higher GOP registration numbers. hubs.ly/Q02NVtcl0

“But it’s not all just blind partisanship. While Trump holds a 3-point lead in AZ and the GOP brand remains strong statewide, low state legislature approval (net -16) and Lake’s trailing in the Senate race suggests a more complex picture.” - Mike Noble hubs.ly/Q02NVvMr0