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If I were the Buccaneers or Falcons, I would simply try to play defense.

There's been a tension the last couple of months between AHH THE SKY IS FALLING labor market alarmists and the Fed view of CALM DOWN PEOPLE THINGS ARE BASICALLY FINE and the Fed view definitely won the September jobs report. I say this having had one foot in the former camp.

Purely in terms of "getting a clean October jobs report that isn't wildly distorted by one-off events," the timing of both Helene and the port strike relative to the CPS reference week worked out pretty well.

Cool, casual 20bps one-day runup in the 2y yield on those strong September jobs numbers:

It’s football night in America.

Excellent read here:

Applications for the Upshot's 2025 Fellowship are now open! Plz share widely with friends and withhold from enemies boards.greenhouse.io/thenewyorktime…

The Fed announced it has left the Network for the Greening of the Financial System, a group of global central bankers and regulators that focuses on climate and transition risks for the financial sector. Five governors voted in favor of leaving. Michael Barr and Adriana Kugler

Later today I'm moderating a discussion on the big year ahead in tax policy with these clever folks. Join us!

Republicans on both sides of Capitol Hill want the administration to get moving on appointing a Fed vice-chair for supervision. (Note that with no governor vacancies Trump would either need to elevate Bowman or Waller to the job or persuade someone to resign).

Inbox: Biden economic adviser Daleep Singh returns to PGIM Fixed Income as chief global economist. pgim.com/press-release/…

Well, it's been a long day, time to check in to see how the ole' portfolio did…

Great to read this piece by Neil Irwin on risks to safe harbor premium. Relates to The Budget Lab work from last year (!) here, so a good time to re-up: budgetlab.yale.edu/news/240502/po…

"A country can attempt to go full autarky, or it can create competitive export firms that are high up the value chain and deeply integrated into global supply networks wherever necessary or advantageous. A country cannot do both." 🔥 from John Lettieri agglomerations.substack.com/p/tired-of-win…

Wait but what if I was just asking extremely incisive questions?