#natgas climbed about 2% on Thursday on a decline in daily output and a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build. the storage increase was smaller than normal for the 15th time in 16 weeks after lower prices earlier in the year prompted several producers to cut output. $ung

#natgas climbed about 4% to a two-week high on Tuesday after the long U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend on a decline in output and increase in gas flows to liquefied natural gas export terminals. In Mexico,Altamira LNG plant received authorization from the U.S. DoE to export LNG.

Bears have sold every rally past 2 to 3 months, aided by storage surpluses, However, Oct 2024 #natgas tested $2 last twice and bounced in both instances, potentially forming a double bottom. As prices remain weak, market observers are monitoring for signs of production pullbacks.

#natgas jumped about 5% to a 7-week high on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build, rising gas flows to #LNG export plants and a continued decline in output so far this month. The 13 bcf of injection was well below the 27-bcf build analysts forecast. $ung $Boil $Kold

In the spot market, a heat wave in the U.S. West caused power prices to soar over 400% to highest levels since Aug 2023 to around $160 per MWh at the Palo Verde hub in Arizona and $150 at SP-15 in Southern California, while In Texas, prices are in the Waha market.

#natgas fell about 5% on Monday on expectations a hurricane forecast to hit Louisiana later this week could cut demand by curtailing gas flows to Gulf Coast #LNG export plants and causing homes and businesses to lose power. $ung $boil $kold

#natgas cash prices followed futures lower. A crucial window to monitor the storm will be late Tue to Wed, when forecasters are most concerned for rapid strengthening. Assuming no lasting infrastructure damage, however, a relief rally is the most-likely over the next 7-10 days.

#natgas climbed about 3% on Tuesday even though Francine is expected to cut demand by curtailing gas flows to Gulf Coast #LNG export plants and cause homes and businesses to lose power. Output was on track to drop by 2.9 bcfd to 16-week low of 99.9 bcfd. $ung $boil $kold

While Francine’s potential impacts cast a pall over #natgas market, the tightening supply/demand balance supported Tuesday’s gains. EIA expected to report a small injection in Thursday report, estimates submitted to Reuters averaged 49 Bcf, vs a 5-year average increase of 67 Bcf.

#natgas climbed about 2% on Wednesday as oil and gas producers continued to cut output before Hurricane Francine that would offset the storm’s demand destroying impacts. Nearly 49% of the natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico had been shut-in. $ung $boil $kold

#natgas LNG volumes fell below 12 Bcf/d on Wednesday, from recent highs around 13.5 Bcf/d. #LNG facilities are built to withstand powerful hurricanes but are susceptible to flooding, power shortages, and other storm-imposed challenges. $ung $boil $kold

#natgas rose nearly 4% on Thursday on a smaller-than-expected storage build last week. The storm has evaded key LNG export infrastructure in providing a supportive influence to the market. $ung $boil $kold

Feed gas sent to #LNG facilities held below 12 Bcfd on Thursday, output on Thursday stood at 99.4 Bcf/d. #natgas producers will have to conduct on-site safety checks and interconnections back onshore before fully restarting operations. $ung $boil $kold

#natgas futures fell on Friday, as traders took profits ahead of the weekend after prices rose to a 2-month high supported by higher demand forecasts and a drop in output in recent days. For the week, it still was up 1%. $ung $boil $kold

Lower-48 state dry #natgas production Friday was 99.4 bcf/day (-1.0% y/y), according to BNEF, demand was 71.6 bcf/day (+0.1% y/y), #LNG net flows to export terminals were 11.9 bcf/day (-11.6% w/w). the number of active natgas drilling rigs rose by +3 rigs to 97 rigs. $ung

#natgas fell 2% on Tuesday after hitting a more than two-month high earlier in the session, with easing concerns over supply and prompting some profit taking. Speculative shorts continue to exit or roll positions forward into the deferred contracts. $ung $boil $kold

After a ~20% runup for the October contract since late Aug, technical resistance could act as a barrier to further gains absent a new price catalyst. The greater bearish pressure on #natgas winter contracts could also limit the magnitude of near-term gains. $ung $boil $kold

Fading seasonal storage oversupply concerns are helping #natgas prices, however as the 2.5 Bcf/d Matterhorn Express Pipeline ramped up flows from Permian to East Texas, the pipeline’s initial flows flipped West Texas spot prices positive. Output estimated at 99.4 Bcf/d for Wed.

#natgas settled up on Thurs on warmer-than-normal forecasts that could boost cooling demand, despite a EIA report showing a slightly higher-than-expected weekly storage build. There's still concern about the slow recovery of the Gulf production. $ung $boil $Kold

The weekly data still suggests a tight underlying fundamental, helping to keep a floor under #natgas pricing through the upcoming winter. Even with the bearish trend for weather into Oct, storage surpluses are expected to decrease towards ~200 Bcf by mid-to-late Oct. $ung