12z Euro comes through with scenario 2. Perfect snowstorm run. But if you want a snowstorm, no gloating….what it shows now is most likely not the final outcome. I think the southern scenarios are more likely than the northern, so close it rains track. And today’s trends are

12z Euro ensembles, 7am Tuesday. Slower, not quite as strong…but a nice look for a snowstorm. But lots of time. Will change.

Odds for accumulating snow have increased a bit for Tuesday. Still plenty of time to watch things!

18z Euro ensemble mean looking good for snow - if it doesn’t move. Lol. 60%+ chance for 3”+ / 40%+ chance for 6”+ for most of SNE…. That’s a strong signal this far out. But of course expect changes.

Euro and GFS settling in on a solution? really still wayyy to early to tell, ensembles still all over the place with exact track

Here are the ensembles. That’s the 00z GFS. I am keeping an eye on the trends. The timing is Monday night through Tuesday morning. If scenario 2 plays out, things should improve Tuesday afternoon…but if the storm slows there could be lingering impacts into the afternoon. For

06z Euro ensembles….perfect for a SNE snowstorm. Will it hold?!

40-60% probability for 6”+ of snow this run

12z GFS….its a narrow swath of snow, centered right over SNE.

Tuesday could be fun! I'll have the latest coming up at 4.

And here’s that 12z Euro…..mostly a scenario 2, but tight with some mixing south.

GFS with another crush job for NEPA/NNJ/hudson valley and NE

don't forget all of the discussion about the storm in my Patreon is at the "be my Valentine blizzard thread" join for free or just 2$ a month to see all the maps and discussion patreon.com/Nsfwwx?utm_cam…

Beyond the unseasonably warm weekend... we are keenly focused on Tuesday, as a coastal storm likely brings plowable snow & wind to CT. Our First Alert Team of meteorologists will keep you up to date in the coming days as to how model trends evolve, and therefore impacts...

Here’s the impact to the Euro ensemble mean snowfall trend. More robust due to the slowing and a touch south as the track shifted south.

National blend of models calling out where the bullseye may end up.

Here is our official snowfall forecast for late Monday night and Tuesday. #NYwx #CTwx #NJwx #NYCwx

A Winter Storm Watch is now if effect on Tuesday for much of Southern New England. Total snowfall accumulations of 6-12 inches is possible. Hazardous travel conditions possible for both the Tuesday morning and afternoon commute. #MAWX #RIWX #CTWX

Updated snowfall map… all in a solid 6-12” across most of the area. A bit less across SE CT, S RI, SE MA and northern MA. Also a jackpot zone cuts right through CT, N RI to near Boston where 8-14” is likely. This won’t be perfect for everyone, but you have the general idea.

It is not a lot, but the timing might mean some slippery patches out there early tomorrow morning for the early risers on a Saturday, like hockey parents! Scattered squalls fly by in the afternoon too. #NBCCT