Interesting from Levada: 1️⃣ Record numbers of Russians support a negotiated end to the war 2️⃣ Record numbers support a nuclear strike on Ukraine In other words, Russians increasingly want the war to end but don’t care how.

"two Ukrainian soldiers awaiting orders to join the battle in Kursk said they had just arrived from the front line near Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces are under heavy pressure. “We came to help,” said one of them. Another soldier said he was surprised to learn he was being

Scoop in POLITICO: Richard Blumenthal & Lindsey Graham told Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський they'll push for another Ukraine supplemental this year, as well as to lift U.S. weapons restrictions on Ukrainian strikes into Russia. Thoughts on why now is the right time and why a new supp is necessary🧵

Interesting piece. washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/…

Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine has been fighting two fronts: Russia on the battlefields and intransigent western governments in the halls of power. Fear of escalation has severely limited the quantity and quality of weapons willingly provided to Ukraine. 3/22

🇺🇲🇺🇦🇷🇺 Politico: Ukraine to present Biden admin with targets it could hit in Russia, given the chance "Ukraine is using the list as a last-ditch effort to convince Washington to lift the restrictions" Ukraine is taking a big risk by even telling the Biden Admin this. If "last

It appears Ukraine redeployed elements from the 93rd Mechanized Brigade from the Chasiv Yar front to the Pokrovsk front.

Independent filmmakers do not simply rock up in occupied Ukraine to spend months filming Russian troops “unauthorized.”

📺 JD Vance provides most detailed description I’ve seen of Trump’s “peace plan” for Ukraine. He calls for carving up 🇺🇦 & preventing it from joining NATO &by extension, the EU. Given lack of Western security guarantees, it’s hard to imagine any Ukrainian leader would sign up.

Putin, thrown off balance by Steve’s tremendous question, actually tells the truth about why he is waging a war against Ukraine. He essentially says he is lashing out at Ukraine because he felt he was slighted by the west. He course corrects to make it about national security.

Putin has staged another performance concerning the "missile": kremlin.ru/events/preside…. He bragged about the specs and promised to start serial production. A master bullshi**er, he delights in intimidation. You can tell from his demeanor here that he thinks his tactic has worked.

Bashar al-Assad in 2014 to a Russian envoy: "Tell Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin that I'm not Yanukovych, I won't go anywhere." This was in response to Ukraine's then-president fleeing to Russia after a revolution ousted him. Life comes at you fast

Busy Sunday at the Khmeimim airbase. Russia keeps on airlifting its troops and equipment from Syria. Ka-52 helicopter accompanying Il-76 during take off.

The Russo-Ukrainian War started three years ago today. Since then, our Russia Studies Program has put out over 30+ reports, articles, and other public research on the topic. Colleagues at RAND, RUSI, CSIS, CNAS, Carnegie, and elsewhere have done similarly.

Everything hinges on US credibility to punish Russia for a failure to accept ceasefire. Right now Trump has little credibility in this regard because he has signaled desperation for normalisation. But I hold open possibility that being made to look like a chump cd shift things.

I think it will be hard for Putin to reject this 30 day ceasefire proposal outright. The stakes now (in his view) are much more than just Ukraine - the bigger prize is the US-Russia diplomatic normalization, dropping of sanctions, driving a wedge within NATO, etc🧵

Today was a good day for 🇺🇦 diplomacy: 🇺🇸 arms and intel support are restored, political pressure shifts to 🇷🇺, at the cost of a notional commitment to a ceasefire, with no territorial concessions and, as yet, no minerals deal. Things get harder from here, though. (A 🧵) /1

Been speaking with senior Ukrainian govt source re skewed negotiations. He called it a “deliberate humiliation” by Putin: “Trump needed an info win fm ceasefire deal, but Russia undercut his success, demanding sanctions relief. Alpha male isn’t Trump, they’re saying, it’s Putin.”

Putin is effectively offering to support/acknowledge an American sphere of influence in the Western hemisphere (in exchange for the support/acquiescence of establishing Russia’s in Eastern Europe)

1/7. In case you haven’t been following, here is a short summary of the misnamed Russian-American "peace process" regarding Ukraine.