BlackHill(@Moatdelusion) 's Twitter Profileg
BlackHill

@Moatdelusion

Long/short. European small to mid caps. Generalist. Value and growth are two sides of the same coin. Not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.

ID:1430537863083536390

calendar_today25-08-2021 14:29:59

119 Tweets

349 Followers

351 Following

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Looking at a small cap family-owned Italian business. Compounded revenue and EBITDA by 10%pa since 1983(!).

Organic revenue down only 3 out of the last 40 years. Trades at 12x EBIT.

Might disclose the name of the company at some point.

Looking at a small cap family-owned Italian business. Compounded revenue and EBITDA by 10%pa since 1983(!). Organic revenue down only 3 out of the last 40 years. Trades at 12x EBIT. Might disclose the name of the company at some point.
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In case you are wondering, this is the Like-for-Like contribution for Pandora $PNDORA over the last 7 years by channel.

The company is:

a) going through a lab-grown diamond inflection point and

b) changing its channel mix towards DTC

In case you are wondering, this is the Like-for-Like contribution for Pandora $PNDORA over the last 7 years by channel. The company is: a) going through a lab-grown diamond inflection point and b) changing its channel mix towards DTC
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Comparing unit economics of $BFIT.AS, $GYM.L and PureGym. Numbers are actuals and not management estimates.

There is latent pricing power (15-25%) for $BFIT.AS and $GYM.L to match the second cheapest provider in the country. That will bring FCF and ROIC closer to 2019 levels.

Comparing unit economics of $BFIT.AS, $GYM.L and PureGym. Numbers are actuals and not management estimates. There is latent pricing power (15-25%) for $BFIT.AS and $GYM.L to match the second cheapest provider in the country. That will bring FCF and ROIC closer to 2019 levels.
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PureGym's leverage is insane. Typical PE-backed overleveraged company.

They use 'run-rate adj. EBITDA' to calculate the leverage... On a 'normal' metric the leverage is ca. 10x, while they say it is 4,4x.

PureGym's leverage is insane. Typical PE-backed overleveraged company. They use 'run-rate adj. EBITDA' to calculate the leverage... On a 'normal' metric the leverage is ca. 10x, while they say it is 4,4x.
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Is there any other country that allows for 30-year fixed mortgage except the US? Seems very unique to the US.

Is there any other country that allows for 30-year fixed mortgage except the US? Seems very unique to the US.
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Vitec $VIT capitalizes the shit out of its development costs.

Capitalized development costs account for 13% of revenues and 40% (!) of EBITA in 2023.

EV/FCF (24e) is 60x... a bit expensive dont you think.

Vitec $VIT capitalizes the shit out of its development costs. Capitalized development costs account for 13% of revenues and 40% (!) of EBITA in 2023. EV/FCF (24e) is 60x... a bit expensive dont you think.
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Bravida $BRAV.ST an installation roll-up from Sweden has been overbilling their customers.

There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen when you start looking around.

Bravida $BRAV.ST an installation roll-up from Sweden has been overbilling their customers. There is never just one cockroach in the kitchen when you start looking around.
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The EU market saw -5% car registration decline in March 2024.

How do I make money with this except shorting car dealers?

The EU market saw -5% car registration decline in March 2024. How do I make money with this except shorting car dealers?
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Trifork $TRIFOR.CO does venture capital. Their VC portfolio was not marked down. Why? Well because they value their VC investments via a) DCF and b) latest financial round.

Firstly, how can you use a DCF for VC. Secondly, many of the companies raised money before 2023.

Trifork $TRIFOR.CO does venture capital. Their VC portfolio was not marked down. Why? Well because they value their VC investments via a) DCF and b) latest financial round. Firstly, how can you use a DCF for VC. Secondly, many of the companies raised money before 2023.
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Anglo American $NGLOY owns De Beers, which is the world's largest diamond producer.

Diamond output down 23% in 1Q24 due to luxury spending pullback and lab-grown diamonds cannibalising demand.

Bullish for Pandora $PNDORA as it is going through lab-grown diamond inflection point

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Nothing to see here - everything is perfectly in order.

You should not be worried about margin contraction for chocolate producers.

Nothing to see here - everything is perfectly in order. You should not be worried about margin contraction for chocolate producers.
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Basic-Fit $BFIT is an interesting case. Seems like 'growth-oriented' investors are out. The company currently trades at 13% FCF yield (excl. growth CapEx) and at a 1,4x replacement value. Is this where 'value-oriented' investor get in?

Basic-Fit $BFIT is an interesting case. Seems like 'growth-oriented' investors are out. The company currently trades at 13% FCF yield (excl. growth CapEx) and at a 1,4x replacement value. Is this where 'value-oriented' investor get in?
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Looked at Pro7Sat1 $PSM.DE as a potential short. Horrible management, capital allocation sucks, and is in secular decline due to linear TV.

However, there is no catalyst and the valuation is lower compared with European peers.

Looked at Pro7Sat1 $PSM.DE as a potential short. Horrible management, capital allocation sucks, and is in secular decline due to linear TV. However, there is no catalyst and the valuation is lower compared with European peers.
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Peel Hunt indicated the FTSE SmallCap Index could cease to exist by 2028 because of takeovers.

Funds that invest in UK companies have had 34 straight months of outflows, which has lowered valuations and made companies’ managers question the rationale for being listed.

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