In case you missed it: A record 91% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America now believe US stocks are overvalued.

A blog reviewing the available data about China's balance of payments in the first half of 2025. Joint with Michael Weilandt Customs surplus is up. State bank foreign asset accumulation is up. Current account surplus should have been up in q2 25 ... cfr.org/blog/chinas-da…

The dollar, famously, rallied during the global financial crisis (which originated in the US). It didn't though rally because foreign investors rushed into US assets -- A new blog on an important bit of financial history cfr.org/article/foreig…

Good Morning from Germany, where the trade surplus dropped to $14.7bn in July; the lowest level this year as exports fell much more sharply than imports.

Doug Rediker and I share thoughts in FT Alphaville on politicized swap lines: When a “swap” isn’t a swap for financial stability, it’s a political signal. In the case of Argentina, are we setting a precedent: US financial firepower rewards friends abroad?

Looks like Japan intervened to bring 30-year JGB yield back down after it spiked earlier this week on news its next prime minister is a fiscal dove. Yield caps like this aren't the answer for Japan. They just lead to uncontrolled Yen devaluation. We watched this movie in 2024...

Peso rally was very short-lived

i'm leaving new york if they create a Digital Map of the City

A useful chart from Michael Weilandt showing that Chinese export out performance correlates with European export underperformance. No secret here, as Chinese trade has been very unbalanced the last 3 years 2/2

Brad Setser & I argue the Chinese RMB is hugely undervalued & call on authorities to let it rise sharply. That's needed to tackle the excessive/massive current account surplus & incentivize domestic demand. 👇 Thanks to Brad for joining OMFIF's page. omfif.org/2025/11/its-ti…

Powerful writing

Manage its currency using its state banks

1/4 The IMF formally recognizes that it is a depreciating RMB, not rising manufacturing efficiency, that drives China's growing trade surplus. ft.com/content/9c92aa…

The appreciation of the yuan (against the dollar) in the second half of 2025 -- and particularly in December -- has attracted a bit of attention. (h/t to Michael Weilandt for the chart) 1/ many

Video message from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…

Some countries that have prosecuted or threatened to prosecute central bankers for the purpose of political intimidation or punishment for monetary policy decisions: Argentina, Russia, Turkey, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.

There is a graph circulating showing a big fall in the dollar share of global reserves. That graph includes gold reserves, and the value of the world's gold holdings have soared. Take out gold and there isn't much of a story ... 1/2

One by product of China's exploding external surplus (goods surplus of $1.2 trillion, q4 current account surplus annualized is close to $1 trillion) is that it creates the raw material for some massive intervention numbers h/t Michael Weilandt for the chart

Brad Setser where are you? Article IV is out and it's all about China's external imbalances.