7/ Resilient household spending is slowing the process of bringing labor demand back into balance with the supply of workers. Labor-market tightness is leading to rapid wage growth: wages increased last quarter at rates inconsistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

12/ But while a federal funds rate of 5.3% is sufficient to cool the economy from its white-hot state in 2022, it is likely not as restrictive as many economists think or than it would have been prior to the pandemic. project-syndicate.org/commentary/mil…

14/ As I wrote seven weeks ago, the economy has not landed. The Q1 GDP report, which shows that consumer spending remained strong, supports this view.

Moreover, a soft landing, while still possible, was never likely and looks increasingly unlikely. project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-…

17/ As the economy normalizes from the pandemic, standard economic relationships are reasserting themselves. Beating inflation will likely require an increase in the unemployment rate, which is already around 40bps above its post-pandemic low. project-syndicate.org/commentary/mil…

13/ Despite a 5.3 percent federal funds rate, as recently as one month ago, overall financial conditions were looser than they had been in two years.

16/ While current rates are not sufficiently restrictive to expeditiously push core inflation back to the Fed’s target, they are high enough to create cracks in the economy. Delinquencies for low-income borrowers, for example, are elevated and rising. twitter.com/MichaelRStrain…

Fin/ The underlying economy is booming, and monetary policy is inadequately restrictive. The prospect that taming price pressures may require a mild downturn is more worrying than stagflation.

My Project Syndicate column. project-syndicate.org/commentary/mil…

King assures fellow cancer sufferers he is ‘fine’: Monarch chats to patients and families during his first royal engagement since his own diagnosis

telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2…

DANIEL HANNAN: The scientists can't bring themselves to admit they were wrong about Covid. While Britons gladly gave up their freedom, Sweden got it right trib.al/nJ2YV5V

Everyone (rightly) concerned about the return of rising electricity demand should pay close attention to reconductoring - a wonky but consequential way to get WAY more out of our electric grid. A 🧵

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The first-quarter GDP report supports the view that the US economy has not landed.

Some economists are concerned about stagflation.

The real worry: taming price pressures may require a mild downturn, writes AEI's Michael R. Strain.
project-syndicate.org/commentary/mil…

5/ Strong aggregate consumer spending is being driven partly by increases in wealth that are overpowering the effect of higher interest rates. Since the Fed’s interest-rate-setting committee met in November, the S&P 500 is up 20%. project-syndicate.org/commentary/mil…

4/ But the core of the US economy is consumer spending, which remains strong. On a year-on-year basis, real consumer spending grew at an annual rate of 2.4% last quarter and is not trending down.

2/ Not long ago, markets expected the Fed to cut interest rates six times in 2024. Now, economists and investors are worried about stagflation.

How to connect the dots? Is the economy still booming? Or should we be concerned about a period of slow growth and high inflation?

.National Review Is Hiring Content Managers nationalreview.com/corner/nr-is-h…

America’s Frustrating Search for a Soft Economic Landing
prosyn.org/PT3crAD

While some economists are concerned about stagflation, the real worry is that taming price pressures may require a mild downturn, given strong consumer spending and inadequately restrictive monetary policy.

My Project Syndicate column. prosyn.org/PT3crAD

The underlying economy is booming, and monetary policy is inadequately restrictive. The prospect that taming price pressures may require a mild downturn is more worrying than stagflation.

My Project Syndicate column. project-syndicate.org/commentary/mil…

Thrilled that Jeremy Weinstein will be the next Harvard Kennedy School Dean--he is a fantastic scholar & institution builder with a global outlook--not to mention a thoughtful and kind person. I'm optimistic he will be able to fill Doug Elmendorf's large shoes.
news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/…

Is the US economy still booming? Or should we be concerned about a period of slow growth and high inflation? Michael R. Strain breaks it down. bit.ly/3QtDH5R