AI capabilities = data x compute --> Compute is a key, if not the key lever to govern AI But what does that mean for the multilateral system? Join us in Geneva on Friday morning to listen to experts in the field!

FYSA, this exponential curve we found two years ago, that grows 4x every year for the last decade — that's still going.

Are we running out of data to train language models? State-of-the-art LLMs use datasets with tens of trillions of words, and use 2-3x more per year. Our new ICML paper estimates when we might exhaust all text data on the internet. 1/12

Our team is growing! Take this unique role at the intersection of tech developments and international policy processes!

Our team is growing! Apply to this unique role at the intersection of tech developments, incl. AI, and international policy processes.

The Pact of the Future and the Global Digital Compact have been ADOPTED! Facilitated by Sweden and Zambia, we now have a universal agreement on our digital future. Now the work begins implementing the many commitments - we’re excited to share this journey with you.

New plans. Get in touch if you're interested in contributing to our work!

A "most read" for anyone interested in complex systems and biological information processing. Also add to that Simon's "Architecture of complexity". ps. I highly recommend the series of "Foundational papers in complex systems" from Santa Fe Institute and can't wait for the 4th vol!

The Science of AI Is Too Important to Be Left to the Scientists. In a new opinion piece for Foreign Policy I explain why I’m worried for the UN’s new “Independent International Scientific Panel on AI”. (link in reply)

Intergovernmental negotiations often start with a lack of shared knowledge about the options to consider OR obscure recommendations, both leading to non-ambitious compromises. Our new report addresses this problem by providing options for designing two AI governance mechanisms!

Happy almost-2025! 🎇 I've been quiet on here during parental leave, but to ring in the new year here's a short thread with some things I read recently that I've found myself coming back to:

Today, we are publishing the first-ever International AI Safety Report, backed by 30 countries and the OECD, UN, and EU. It summarises the state of the science on AI capabilities and risks, and how to mitigate those risks. 🧵 Link to full Report: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/679a0c48… 1/16

NEW PAPER We're all tres excited for the Paris AI Action Summit but what comes next? We explore different options for the Future of the AI Summit Series in our new report covering: hosts, secretariat, participants, agenda & frequency.

Excited to share our recommendations for the UN's International Scientific Panel & Global Dialogue on AI! We hope our input can support the establishment of a truly global, scientifically rigorous, and politically relevant mechanism for governing AI. tinyurl.com/33vr9ta7

Come work with us to multiply 10 years of joint experience! It will be fast, demanding and hopefully impactful. We need to save my hair - he already lost his!

Our report to advise the intergovernmental negotiations on the International Scientific Panel on AI and the Global Dialogue on AI Governance is out! Effective, agile and legitimate institutions are possible. Reach out to us if you want to discuss more!

I spent the last four weeks in the US. "The world order of the last 80 years is gone." came up very often. This didn't surprise me. "And it's not coming back." came up too, even by its proponents. This did surprise me.

Shoutout to all the builders joyously putting one foot in front of the other and not succumbing to the current fads of doomerism, sneer culture, and political polarization. It takes courage, even a sense of rebellion, to exit negativity culture

castle weekend is our annual gathering of european frens - ppl from across geneva, berlin, ams, brussels, paris question is: how to bring more castle weekend to everyday life :) retreats are warm, liminal spaces. but real life could look like this too if you set it up right